Week Four Road to the PIT
AUTOMATIC BIDS - DISTRICT CHAMPS
Cleveland
Record: 9-0 overall .1000
District Placement: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 1, Freeman: 1
La Cueva
Record: 4-0 overall 1.000
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 5, Freeman: (est) 8.5
Las Cruces
Record; 7-0 1.000
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 2, Freeman: 5
Roswell
Record: 7-1 .875
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 11, Freeman: 2
Santa Fe
Record: 6-2 .750
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 8, Freeman: 6
AT-LARGE TEAMS - BUBBLE
Atrisco Heritage (3rd)
Record: 3-2 overall .600
District Placement: 2nd (1-5A)
Rankings: Coach Poll: No. 7 Freeman: 7
Sandia (5th)
Record: 4-1 overall .800
DP: 2nd (2-5A)
Rankings: Coach Poll: 10, Freeman: 10
Alamogordo (4th)
Record: 6-1 .857
DP: 2nd (3-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 9, Freeman 11
Hobbs (1st)
Record: 5-1 .833
DP: 2nd (4-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 6, Freeman 3
Los Lunas (2nd)
Record: 5-1 .833
DP: 2nd (5-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 4, Freeman 8
BUBBLE - THIRD PLACE FINISHERS
Clovis (2)
Record: 5-3 .625
DP: 3rd (4-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 13, Freeman 3
Capital (1)
Record: .667
DP: 3rd (5-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 12, Freeman 15
5A BRACKET AS OF SUNDAY, APRIL 18TH
No. 1 Cleveland Storm (95%) vs No. 8 Atrisco Heritage (80%)
No. 2 Las Cruces Bulldawgs (95%) No. 7 Los Lunas Tigers (85%)
No. 3 Roswell Coyotes (80%) vs No. 6 Santa Fe (85%)
No. 4 La Cueva Bears (75%) vs No. 5 Hobbs Eagles (75%)
First Two Out
No. 9 Alamogordo
No. 10 Sandia
Next Two Out
No. 11 Capital
No. 12 Clovis
How we got here: Looked at four of six criteria points as of today (4/18). First looked at DC's, then added District runner-up teams, then added third-place finishers if a DRUP won out.
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5A BASKETBALL
Today, we take a look at NMPreps.com's Road to The PIT. It is our official bracket watch if the season ended today and as of standings today.
District 1-5A
Cleveland (7-0, 3-0)
Atrisco Heritage (2-2, 2-1)
Volcano Vista (3-2, 1-2)
Rio Rancho (4-2, 1-2)
Cibola (2-3, 1-3)
District 2-5A
La Cueva (3-0, 3-0)
West Mesa (1-0, 1-0)
Sandia (2-1, 2-1)
Eldorado (2-1, 2-1)
Farmington (2-3, 0-3)
Piedra Vista (0-5, 0-3)
District 3-5A
Las Cruces (4-0, 4-0)
Alamogordo (5-1, 5-1)
Mayfield (3-1, 3-1)
Onate (1-3, 1-3)
Centennial (1-3, 1-3)
Deming (1-4, 1-4)
Gadsden (1-4, 1-4)
District 4-5A
Roswell (6-1, 1-0)
Clovis (5-1, 1-0)
Hobbs (4-1, 0-1)
Carlsbad (3-2, 0-1)
District 5-5A
Los Lunas (3-0, 3-0)
Santa Fe (5-1, 4-0)
Capital (2-2, 2-2)
Albuquerque (2-2, 2-2)
Manzano (1-3, 1-3)
Rio Grande (0-5, 0-5)
BRACKET WATCH
Automatic Bids
Cleveland (Projected Record: 12-0)
La Cueva (Projected Record: 12-0)
Las Cruces (Projected Record: 12-0)
Roswell (Projected Record: 11-1)
Los Lunas (Projected Record: 12-0)
Scoop: Five of eight bids immediately gone to DC's. Plenty of movement to take place as of today and we still need a Los Lunas-Santa Fe showdown. Today, we give the projected win to Los Lunas based on ranking only. Also, let me put this out there even though most won't read it - do I think all four go 12-0 - NO. This is just based on being the "favorite" in the rest of their games. I see a couple losing at least one game.
First Three In
Hobbs (4-1) - Ranked high in both freeman poll and NMPreps poll and although they'll drop some Roswell still very high on the chart. Hobbs if they finish as runner up will also have a quality record with a possible 10-2 record.
Alamogordo (4-1) - For NMPreps Alamogordo is the third-ranked team in the classification. However, in the freeman, they have a pretty low rating. They absolutely need to head into the post-season 10-2.
Santa Fe (5-1) - The Demons as discussed could still take an auto bid when they play Los Lunas. Today, we gave LL the nod but as of today, this is a coinflip. Possible 9-3 record going into the postseason.
First Three Out
Atrisco Heritage (2-2) - The Jaguars missing the playoffs would be a bummer and you look back to the Del Norte loss and wanting that one back criteria-wise. If they win the games they should they could be 9-3 heading into the postseason and then it could become a debate between them and Santa Fe.
Clovis (4-1) - Currently they are tied for the auto from 4-5A but we gave the nod to Roswell as of today. The issue is Clovis could also finish, and we projected that, behind Hobbs. They might head to the postseason 8-4.
Volcano Vista (3-2) - The Hawks losing to Cibola really hurt their playoff hopes. They've looked great since that point but that loss could haunt them. They take on Atrisco Heritage tonight (Wednesday, April 14th) at home and a win here will move them up and could argue with Santa Fe for that last spot. A projected record at this point is 7-5 overall.
Still in play
Sandia (2-1) - should be higher but a wait and see what happens after this week.
Capital (2-2) - Could still make a run and wouldn't count out, yet.
Mayfield (3-1) - May need to upset either Las Cruces or Alamogordo.
Rio Rancho (4-2) - Clearly behind Atrsico and Volcano but they still have six games to go.
2021 State Tournament
No. 1 Cleveland vs No. 8 Santa Fe
No. 2 Las Cruces vs No. 7 Los Lunas
No. 3 Roswell vs No. 6 Alamogordo
No. 4 La Cueva vs No. 5 Hobbs
Confidence Level: 60%.
We still have to wait on freeman to update all teams. We will then break down wins over DC's, H2H, coach poll etc. This is just a very broad first look and at only 60% confidence we can see movement happening.
FINAL CONCLUSION
Still, plenty of movement predicted at this point and there are no clear favorites of getting in or locks may be outside of Las Cruces and Cleveland as of today. Unless they have a complete letdown. This is going to make bracket watch fun from here on out.
Please feel free to post your bracket predictions.
AUTOMATIC BIDS - DISTRICT CHAMPS
Cleveland
Record: 9-0 overall .1000
District Placement: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 1, Freeman: 1
La Cueva
Record: 4-0 overall 1.000
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 5, Freeman: (est) 8.5
Las Cruces
Record; 7-0 1.000
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 2, Freeman: 5
Roswell
Record: 7-1 .875
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 11, Freeman: 2
Santa Fe
Record: 6-2 .750
DP: DC
Rankings: Coach Poll: 8, Freeman: 6
AT-LARGE TEAMS - BUBBLE
Atrisco Heritage (3rd)
Record: 3-2 overall .600
District Placement: 2nd (1-5A)
Rankings: Coach Poll: No. 7 Freeman: 7
Sandia (5th)
Record: 4-1 overall .800
DP: 2nd (2-5A)
Rankings: Coach Poll: 10, Freeman: 10
Alamogordo (4th)
Record: 6-1 .857
DP: 2nd (3-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 9, Freeman 11
Hobbs (1st)
Record: 5-1 .833
DP: 2nd (4-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 6, Freeman 3
Los Lunas (2nd)
Record: 5-1 .833
DP: 2nd (5-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 4, Freeman 8
BUBBLE - THIRD PLACE FINISHERS
Clovis (2)
Record: 5-3 .625
DP: 3rd (4-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 13, Freeman 3
Capital (1)
Record: .667
DP: 3rd (5-5A)
Rankings: Coach: 12, Freeman 15
5A BRACKET AS OF SUNDAY, APRIL 18TH
No. 1 Cleveland Storm (95%) vs No. 8 Atrisco Heritage (80%)
No. 2 Las Cruces Bulldawgs (95%) No. 7 Los Lunas Tigers (85%)
No. 3 Roswell Coyotes (80%) vs No. 6 Santa Fe (85%)
No. 4 La Cueva Bears (75%) vs No. 5 Hobbs Eagles (75%)
First Two Out
No. 9 Alamogordo
No. 10 Sandia
Next Two Out
No. 11 Capital
No. 12 Clovis
How we got here: Looked at four of six criteria points as of today (4/18). First looked at DC's, then added District runner-up teams, then added third-place finishers if a DRUP won out.
--------4/15------------
5A BASKETBALL
Today, we take a look at NMPreps.com's Road to The PIT. It is our official bracket watch if the season ended today and as of standings today.
District 1-5A
Cleveland (7-0, 3-0)
Atrisco Heritage (2-2, 2-1)
Volcano Vista (3-2, 1-2)
Rio Rancho (4-2, 1-2)
Cibola (2-3, 1-3)
District 2-5A
La Cueva (3-0, 3-0)
West Mesa (1-0, 1-0)
Sandia (2-1, 2-1)
Eldorado (2-1, 2-1)
Farmington (2-3, 0-3)
Piedra Vista (0-5, 0-3)
District 3-5A
Las Cruces (4-0, 4-0)
Alamogordo (5-1, 5-1)
Mayfield (3-1, 3-1)
Onate (1-3, 1-3)
Centennial (1-3, 1-3)
Deming (1-4, 1-4)
Gadsden (1-4, 1-4)
District 4-5A
Roswell (6-1, 1-0)
Clovis (5-1, 1-0)
Hobbs (4-1, 0-1)
Carlsbad (3-2, 0-1)
District 5-5A
Los Lunas (3-0, 3-0)
Santa Fe (5-1, 4-0)
Capital (2-2, 2-2)
Albuquerque (2-2, 2-2)
Manzano (1-3, 1-3)
Rio Grande (0-5, 0-5)
BRACKET WATCH
Automatic Bids
Cleveland (Projected Record: 12-0)
La Cueva (Projected Record: 12-0)
Las Cruces (Projected Record: 12-0)
Roswell (Projected Record: 11-1)
Los Lunas (Projected Record: 12-0)
Scoop: Five of eight bids immediately gone to DC's. Plenty of movement to take place as of today and we still need a Los Lunas-Santa Fe showdown. Today, we give the projected win to Los Lunas based on ranking only. Also, let me put this out there even though most won't read it - do I think all four go 12-0 - NO. This is just based on being the "favorite" in the rest of their games. I see a couple losing at least one game.
First Three In
Hobbs (4-1) - Ranked high in both freeman poll and NMPreps poll and although they'll drop some Roswell still very high on the chart. Hobbs if they finish as runner up will also have a quality record with a possible 10-2 record.
Alamogordo (4-1) - For NMPreps Alamogordo is the third-ranked team in the classification. However, in the freeman, they have a pretty low rating. They absolutely need to head into the post-season 10-2.
Santa Fe (5-1) - The Demons as discussed could still take an auto bid when they play Los Lunas. Today, we gave LL the nod but as of today, this is a coinflip. Possible 9-3 record going into the postseason.
First Three Out
Atrisco Heritage (2-2) - The Jaguars missing the playoffs would be a bummer and you look back to the Del Norte loss and wanting that one back criteria-wise. If they win the games they should they could be 9-3 heading into the postseason and then it could become a debate between them and Santa Fe.
Clovis (4-1) - Currently they are tied for the auto from 4-5A but we gave the nod to Roswell as of today. The issue is Clovis could also finish, and we projected that, behind Hobbs. They might head to the postseason 8-4.
Volcano Vista (3-2) - The Hawks losing to Cibola really hurt their playoff hopes. They've looked great since that point but that loss could haunt them. They take on Atrisco Heritage tonight (Wednesday, April 14th) at home and a win here will move them up and could argue with Santa Fe for that last spot. A projected record at this point is 7-5 overall.
Still in play
Sandia (2-1) - should be higher but a wait and see what happens after this week.
Capital (2-2) - Could still make a run and wouldn't count out, yet.
Mayfield (3-1) - May need to upset either Las Cruces or Alamogordo.
Rio Rancho (4-2) - Clearly behind Atrsico and Volcano but they still have six games to go.
2021 State Tournament
No. 1 Cleveland vs No. 8 Santa Fe
No. 2 Las Cruces vs No. 7 Los Lunas
No. 3 Roswell vs No. 6 Alamogordo
No. 4 La Cueva vs No. 5 Hobbs
Confidence Level: 60%.
We still have to wait on freeman to update all teams. We will then break down wins over DC's, H2H, coach poll etc. This is just a very broad first look and at only 60% confidence we can see movement happening.
FINAL CONCLUSION
Still, plenty of movement predicted at this point and there are no clear favorites of getting in or locks may be outside of Las Cruces and Cleveland as of today. Unless they have a complete letdown. This is going to make bracket watch fun from here on out.
Please feel free to post your bracket predictions.
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