2025 New Mexico Class 5A Girls Basketball State Tournament Preview & Predictions
The New Mexico Class 5A Girls Basketball State Tournament tips off with a loaded field featuring perennial powerhouses, dynamic underdogs, and some of the top talent in the Southwest. With state championship aspirations on the line, the margin for error shrinks, and the opening round is set to deliver high-stakes matchups from top to bottom.
Loaded with next-level talent, Hobbs features Bhret Clay (Air Force commit), Brynn Hargrove (New Mexico Highlands commit), and Kyndle Cunningham (Colorado State-Pueblo offer). This is as deep and balanced a roster as you’ll find in New Mexico. Piedra Vista clinched the final spot in the bracket after late-season wins over Farmington and Cleveland, led by senior scorer Tyra Holyan (17.3 ppg) and junior Jaime Pierce (10.9 ppg). Unfortunately for the Panthers, a nearly 8-hour bus ride awaits before facing the tournament’s top seed.
Prediction: Hobbs 91, Piedra Vista 33. Mercy clock in effect early as Hobbs advances with authority.
Centennial has shown major growth after a 2-10 start, finishing strong behind Joy Hunt (9.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg), with freshman and sophomore talent gaining valuable experience. However, Sandia's firepower and championship pedigree are on another level.
Prediction: Sandia 77, Centennial 43. Defending champs roll into the quarterfinals.
Roswell, after a 13-4 start, stumbled to a 1-5 District 4-5A finish. They will rely on Ada Vasquez, Emma Esquivel, and freshman Seriyah Minner to try and spark an upset, but Mayfield already bested them 41-30 earlier this season.
Prediction: Mayfield 44, Roswell 38. Expect another low-scoring, gritty Mayfield win.
Cleveland, at 13-14, struggled down the stretch, losing six of its final eight games. Savannah Madueno (11.9 ppg) and Malia Mose (9.7 ppg) will have to have monster nights to keep it close.
Prediction: Farmington 54, Cleveland 42. Scorpions complete the season sweep.
Carlsbad is led by sharpshooter Abbey Dugan, who surpassed 1,000 career points, and floor general Cameron Zumbrun. But Albuquerque’s depth and youth give them a clear edge.
Prediction: Albuquerque 55, Carlsbad 42. Bulldogs march on.
Las Cruces (18-9) has talent with Bethzy Quinones (13.4 ppg) and veterans like Danae Pacheco and Sofia Herrera, but the matchup on the road favors the Bears.
Prediction: La Cueva 55, Las Cruces 47. Bears grind out a close one.
Rio Rancho (20-10) counters with an electric freshman duo in Madilynn Martinez (16.3 ppg) and Larissa Martinez (9.2 ppg), making them one of the most exciting young teams in the bracket.
Prediction: Rio Rancho 56, Los Lunas 48. The young Rams pull the upset.
Volcano Vista (16-11) is never an easy out with coach Lisa Villareal at the helm, and they’re peaking at the right time behind Mila Espinoza (16.2 ppg) and Jaylsa Hines.
Prediction: Volcano Vista 61, Clovis 59. The Hawks take a thriller on the road.
The New Mexico Class 5A Girls Basketball State Tournament tips off with a loaded field featuring perennial powerhouses, dynamic underdogs, and some of the top talent in the Southwest. With state championship aspirations on the line, the margin for error shrinks, and the opening round is set to deliver high-stakes matchups from top to bottom.
#1 Hobbs vs #16 Piedra Vista, 6 p.m.
When it comes to girls basketball, living legend Hobbs head coach Joe Carpenter is one of those rare figures who seems to win wherever he goes—and this season has been no exception. Riding a 26-game winning streak, the 26-1 Lady Eagles tore through District 4-5A with a perfect 6-0 record and enter March as the team to beat.Loaded with next-level talent, Hobbs features Bhret Clay (Air Force commit), Brynn Hargrove (New Mexico Highlands commit), and Kyndle Cunningham (Colorado State-Pueblo offer). This is as deep and balanced a roster as you’ll find in New Mexico. Piedra Vista clinched the final spot in the bracket after late-season wins over Farmington and Cleveland, led by senior scorer Tyra Holyan (17.3 ppg) and junior Jaime Pierce (10.9 ppg). Unfortunately for the Panthers, a nearly 8-hour bus ride awaits before facing the tournament’s top seed.
Prediction: Hobbs 91, Piedra Vista 33. Mercy clock in effect early as Hobbs advances with authority.
#2 Sandia vs #15 Centennial, 5 p.m.
The defending state champions look every bit the part of a repeat contender, finishing 26-1 with a 13-game win streak and going undefeated in District 2-5A. Sandia is powered by Sydney Benally (BYU commit, 20 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.7 apg) and the emerging star Hope Giddings (12.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg), alongside a deep rotation featuring Kaiyah Benally, Nadia Randall, and Audri Wright.Centennial has shown major growth after a 2-10 start, finishing strong behind Joy Hunt (9.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg), with freshman and sophomore talent gaining valuable experience. However, Sandia's firepower and championship pedigree are on another level.
Prediction: Sandia 77, Centennial 43. Defending champs roll into the quarterfinals.
#3 Mayfield vs #14 Roswell, 6 p.m.
Mayfield (24-3) has quietly been dominant in southern New Mexico, sweeping District 3-5A at 10-0 and boasting a defensive mindset. Key contributors include Ceanna McKines (11 ppg, 7.1 rpg), Jazlene Ruiz (10.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg), and Lorrena Viarreal.Roswell, after a 13-4 start, stumbled to a 1-5 District 4-5A finish. They will rely on Ada Vasquez, Emma Esquivel, and freshman Seriyah Minner to try and spark an upset, but Mayfield already bested them 41-30 earlier this season.
Prediction: Mayfield 44, Roswell 38. Expect another low-scoring, gritty Mayfield win.
#4 Farmington vs #13 Cleveland, 6 p.m.
A familiar matchup between District 1-5A foes, Farmington (22-6) is led by the trio of Kjani Anitielu (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Caris Dale (11.2 ppg), and Chenoa Parrish. Despite a few hiccups late, they are a serious Final Four threat.Cleveland, at 13-14, struggled down the stretch, losing six of its final eight games. Savannah Madueno (11.9 ppg) and Malia Mose (9.7 ppg) will have to have monster nights to keep it close.
Prediction: Farmington 54, Cleveland 42. Scorpions complete the season sweep.
#5 Albuquerque vs #12 Carlsbad, 6 p.m.
Albuquerque enters as one of the state's hottest teams, winners of 14 of their last 15 and perfect in District 5-5A. Their dynamic duo of Lailah Bouldin (15.7 ppg) and eighth-grader Abby Pavia (13.7 ppg) make them an immediate threat.Carlsbad is led by sharpshooter Abbey Dugan, who surpassed 1,000 career points, and floor general Cameron Zumbrun. But Albuquerque’s depth and youth give them a clear edge.
Prediction: Albuquerque 55, Carlsbad 42. Bulldogs march on.
#6 La Cueva vs #11 Las Cruces, 6 p.m.
La Cueva (20-7) is dangerous with star guard Jordyn Dyer (20.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3 apg) and rising freshman Payton Lobato. The Bears are eager to avoid a third straight early exit at the hands of Hobbs and hope to make a deep run.Las Cruces (18-9) has talent with Bethzy Quinones (13.4 ppg) and veterans like Danae Pacheco and Sofia Herrera, but the matchup on the road favors the Bears.
Prediction: La Cueva 55, Las Cruces 47. Bears grind out a close one.
#7 Los Lunas vs #10 Rio Rancho, 6 p.m.
Los Lunas (23-6) has been excellent in 2024, losing only to Albuquerque in district play. Freshman Kayla Finley (11.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and sophomore Vayda Golino (11 ppg) lead a well-balanced squad.Rio Rancho (20-10) counters with an electric freshman duo in Madilynn Martinez (16.3 ppg) and Larissa Martinez (9.2 ppg), making them one of the most exciting young teams in the bracket.
Prediction: Rio Rancho 56, Los Lunas 48. The young Rams pull the upset.
#8 Clovis vs #9 Volcano Vista, 6 p.m.
This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. Clovis (21-7) has been solid all year with Amanda De La Rosa and Gianna Cordova, but they’ve been inconsistent late.Volcano Vista (16-11) is never an easy out with coach Lisa Villareal at the helm, and they’re peaking at the right time behind Mila Espinoza (16.2 ppg) and Jaylsa Hines.
Prediction: Volcano Vista 61, Clovis 59. The Hawks take a thriller on the road.
