Feature July 30th: 2024 Best/Worst Case Scenario - Capital Jaguars

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NMPreps Best and Worst Case Scenarios: Capital Jaguars

NMPreps continues our fan-favorite annual feature as we review all the schedules in New Mexico high school football with our Best & Worst Case Scenario for the 2024 season. In this feature, we will review all 10 games for each team leading up to the 2024 season. #nmpreps

2024 Schedule:

Date	Opponent	Game Type
8/23	at Santa Fe	Coin Flip
8/30	vs St. Michael's	Underdog
9/6	at Espanola Valley	Underdog/CF
9/13	at Del Norte*	Favorite
9/20	vs Los Alamos*	Underdog
9/27	at Rio Grande*	Favorite
10/4	vs Valley*	Underdog
10/18	vs Miyamura*	Favorite
10/24	at Highland*	Underdog/CF
11/1	vs Belen*	Coin Flip

*Denotes District

2023 Recap

Capital is coming off a 1-9 overall season and their last in 6A football as they make the move down to 5A for the 2024 and 2025 realignment. They will also feature a new head coach in 2024. View our preseason preview here.

Best Case Scenario: 7-3 overall, 5-2 in district​

An intriguing schedule for the Capital Jaguars as we head into 2024. New coach, new classification, new expectations. Can they achieve a 7-win season? Not sure, but let's break it down on how they could. They will be favored in games against Del Norte, Rio Grande, and Miyamura. All three of those teams are looking to improve as well, but the Jaguars should be able to win out. Next, the coin flip games against Santa Fe, Belen, Espanola Valley, and Highland. This is going to be a tough feat but not out of the question. They hung around with Santa Fe last season, falling 28-21. Belen has won 3 games in two years, Espanola despite having a great season could take a step back, and Highland is going to be good with a top-ten RB the Jaguars could challenge. Watch out for a city rivalry game in week two with St. Michael's as well. Also, last season the game with Los Alamos was close (23-20), and this could flip into a CF by the time they meet.

Worst Case Scenario: 3-7 overall, 3-4 in district​

This would mean only winning the three games that they are favored in against Del Norte, Miyamura, and Rio Grande. 3 feels like a solid floor for the Jaguars.

Final Thoughts: Over/Under Wins 4.5​

We went with a number somewhere in the middle between the BC and the WC. I am leaning towards the over with an NMPreps prediction of going 5-5 overall. I am playing it conservatively as there is a lot to learn about a program with a new HC, but we are intrigued. Last year's 1-9 overall season could have easily been 8-2, which is crazy to think how close each game was last season, but they just fell short.

Related: New Mexico High School Football's 2024 Best and Worst Case Scenarios

 

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