ADVERTISEMENT

Over/Under: Win Totals in 5A Football

J Grine

NMPreps Hall Of Fame
Staff
Oct 31, 2010
43,548
15,817
113
37
Rio Rancho
Over/Under: Win Totals in 5A Football
Joshua J Grine of NMPreps.com

Today, we take a look at the over/under when looking at wins and losses. 5A will have a few new teams from 6A and 4A football during the current alignment.

ALAMOGORDO TIGERS

Over/Under: 7.5

2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Valencia
9/2 - Los Lunas
9/9 - Valley
9/16 - at St. Pius X
9/30 - at Goddard
10/7 - Artesia
10/21 - Chaparral
10/28 - at Santa Teresa
11/4 - at Deming

Pick: Over. The Tigers were good last year as they rushed to a 6-0 start before stumbling to a 6-4 finish. Well, they played Valencia (W. 53-0) and Los Lunas (W, 46-7) and went 2-0. They have an easier battle in District were they stumbled last season going 0-3 against the likes of Clovis, Carlsbad and Hobbs. They replace them with Chaparral, Santa Teresa and Deming. They played Deming last season winning 56-12. Count possible playoff wins and I could see a 8 + win team.

ALBUQUERQUE ACADEMY CHARGERS

Over/Under: 4

2016 Schedule
8/27 - Hope Christian
9/2 - at Tucumcari
9/10 - Bernalillo
9/17 - West Las Vegas
9/23 - at Escalante
9/30 - at Socorro
10/8 - Espanola Valley
10/14 - at Los Alamos
10/22 - Del Norte
10/28 - at Capital

Pick: Under. The Chargers football program is not what it once was, playing for a state championship. The team is struggling with numbers and overall talent. They move into a district after playing independent last season and going 3-5 on the season. They did beat Bernalillo (47-6) and Escalante (41-20) but looking at the schedule they either have Tucumcari or Socorro. I don't think they will get both on the road and that is why I went under.

ARTESIA BULLDOGS

Over/Under: 8.5

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Carlsbad
9/2 - at Hobbs
9/9 - at Valencia
9/16 - Deming
9/23 - Cleveland
9/30 - Los Lunas
10/7 - Alamogordo
10/14 Open
10/21 - Roswell
10/28 - at Goddard
11/04 - at Lovington

Pick: Over. The Bulldogs have a huge task at hand with a new head coach making the calls. Living up to a team that went 12-1 along with being the two-time defending state champion. However, in this case - it is Artesia - the roster was left with some talent now and in the future. Outside of a game against Cleveland (No. 2 NMPreps.com Top 50) they are favored in all games at this point. Games to circle are Los Lunas, Alamogordo and of course the opener against Carlsbad.

AZTEC TIGERS

Over/Under: 6.5

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Los Lunas
9/2 - Durango, Colorado
9/9 - at Bayfield, Colorado
9/16 - at Piedra Vista
9/24 - Cobre
10/7 - Kirtland Central
10/14 - at Bloomfield
10/21 - at Farmington
10/28 - Gallup
11/4 - Miyamura

Pick: Under. Tigers don't take this personal. Well, maybe throw it on the bulletin. The opening four games (maybe 5) are difficult. Los Lunas is dominate, Durango went 10-2 and Bayfield went 12-0. Yes, that was last season but some solid openers and then Piedra Vista will be one of the best teams in the state this season after reaching the semi-finals last season. Good news, the district won't be extremely difficult and that is where they can get W's with Farmington the only team atop the rest who can fight for second.

BELEN EAGLES

Over/Under: 6.5

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Bloomfield
9/3 - Highland
9/9 - Farmington
9/16 - Rio Grande
9/23 - at Roswell
9/30 - Deming
10/7 - at Valencia
10/14 - Los Lunas
10/29 - St. Pius X
11/4 - Grants

Pick: Over. The Eagles will always have high expectations, even coming off a 3-win season. The Eagles have a new head coach this season in Greg Henington, the former Mayfield assistant coach, and has one of the better 2018 classes in the classification. The Eagles have a favorable schedule with a mixture of quality talent. They have winnable games along with teams in the predicted 5A tournament. I would say 6/7 wins.

DEL NORTE KNIGHTS

Over/Under: 5

2016 Schedule
8/26 - West Mesa (Community)
9/2 - at Farmington
9/9 - at Los Lunas
9/15 - Atrisco Heritage Academy (Milne)
9/22 - Albuquerque (Milne)
10/1 - at Rio Grande (Milne)
10/8 - Los Alamos
10/22 - at Albuquerque Academy
11/5 - Espanola Valley (Milne)
- Missing One Game (Capital)

Pick: Over. The Knights haven't won over 5-games since 2008 however this feels like the year that could provide some success. The schedule is not overwhelming, they have some talent and have the coach to get them over the 5-game hump. I could see this team, ranked 36th this preseason, as a post season team that could win a game or two. Avery See returns as one of the top prospects in the state of New Mexico along with a handful of talent on this roster. The first three games will be the most difficult part of the schedule and could be 0-3 or 1-2 but could see them getting 6-wins after that going hot into the post season (pending one game not listed yet). They are 6-games that are winnable and could have them in the mix. This will be the surprise team, you might be surprised that I just said they could be 6-3/7-2.

DEMING WILDCATS

Over/Under: 5

2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Gadsden
9/2 - at EP Burges, Texas
9/9 - Silver
9/16 - at Artesia
9/23 - Flowing Wells, Arizona
9/30 - at Belen
10/7 - Goddard
10/21 - Santa Teresa
10/28 - at Chaparral
11/4 - Alamogordo

Pick: Under. The Wildcats went 4-6 last season, their last season in 6A football. They move down into 5A football this season but the task will not be any easier with some tough opponents and graduate some talented prospects of the 2015 team. They have a four game stretch from September 16th - October 7th that could make or break the year. I could see as the ceiling another 4-6 season, at the very best case scenario.

ESPANOLA VALLEY SUNDEVILS

2016 Schedule

8/26 - Show Low, Arizona
9/2 - at Escalante
9/9 - at Questa
TBA - at Pojoaque Valley
9/16 - Moriarty
9/23 - Miyamura
9/30 - Portales
10/8 - at Albuquerque Academy
10/21 - Capital
10/28 - Los Alamos
11/5 - at Del Norte

Over/Under: 5

Pick: Under. The Sundevils went 9-2 last season with a history making year. Will that magic continue, if we are predicting and I am, the dust has settled. They have hired a new coach after the off-season fiasco. They do play a few games against teams in a lower classification but I will predict 3-wins at the best.

FARMINGTON SCORPIONS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Piedra Vista
9/2 - Del Norte
9/9 - at Belen
9/16 - at Durango
9/30 - Roswell
10/7 - at Gallup
10/14 - Kirtland Central
10/21 - Aztec
10/28 - at Miyamura
11/4 -at Bloomfield

Over/Under: 8

Pick: Under. This might come to a surprise to many out there as the Scorpions are coming off an 8-4 last season. However, they could come close with a 7-win season. This team however might be in the situation that they are not getting the respect that they deserve. Pre-district could be tough though as the have a pair of teams in Del Norte and Belen that could be well improved. Maybe throw in Roswell who is in this question mark of how good are you going to be? The district is not normally one to talk about but has some teams that might sneak up on you.
Okay, I contradicted myself and said a lot of maybe but this schedule has too many what-ifs. My prediction is 6-wins.

GALLUP BENGALS

9/2 - at Bernalillo
9/9 -at Thoreau
9/16 - at Shiprock
9/23 - Los Alamos
10/1 - Grants
10/7 - Farmington
10/14 - at Miyamura
10/21 - Bloomfield
10/28 - at Aztec
11/4 - Kirtland Central

Over/Under: 4

Pick: Under. Getting better is every coach and teams hopes to improve their recordfrom the previous season. The Bengals went 3-7 and that might be the bar that they reach again this season at the very best. However, the opportunity to start 3-0 could be an achievable goal and that could build some much needed confidence for a program that needs any and all confidence on the football field. The bad news for this team in their journey to win is the fact that they graduated Colton Lowely who led the team in passing and running the ball. My prediction at this point is 2-8.

GODDARD ROCKETS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Capital
9/2 - Piedra Vista
9/9 - at Carlsbad
9/16 - Clovis
9/23 - at Santa Fe
9/30 - Alamogordo
10/7 - at Deming
10/21 - Lovington
10/28 - Artesia
11/4 - at Roswell

Over/Under: 7

Pick: Under. The Rockets are going through some internal transitions the past three years. They are coming off a 6-6 season winning a state tournament game. They return some athletes high on the list but more of a wait and see who the Rockets will be and what star takes the reigns into the new era. Plenty of excitement surrounds junior QB Cameron Stevenson. Looking at the schedule they play four Top-25 preseason teams (#6 Artesia, #7 Clovis, #14 Alamogordo, and #18 Piedra Vista) along with Roswell who is on the verge sitting a spot out. The schedule favors the Rockets during this transition and we could see an over .500 season going into the playoffs with prediction of 6-4 regular season finish (went 5-5 in 2015 regular season).

GRANTS PIRATES

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Miyamura
9/2 - at West Las Vegas
9/9 - at Los Alamos
9/16 - Hope Christian
9/23 - at Tohatchi
10/1 - at Gallup
10/7 - St. Pius X
10/21 - at Valencia
10/28 - Los Lunas
11/4 - at Belen

Over/Under: 5

Pick: Under. After the Pirates sailed to a 4-1 start to the 2015 season they docked at 4-6 dropping the final 5-games. Reaching 4-wins again could be attainable this season again however going above that to a .500 season might be a year or two away. The overall prediction for the Pirates is 4-6 again to duplicate last season. Saving the season to a .500 mark will have to come from an upset over a rebuilding Valencia or Belen team.

KIRTLAND CENTRAL BRONCOS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Navajo Prep
9/2 - Snowflake, Arizona
9/9 - Montezuma-Cortez, Colorado
9/16 - at Los Alamos
9/23 - at Shiprock
10/7 - at Aztec
10/14 - at Farmington
10/21 - Miyamura
10/28 - Bloomfield
11/4 - at Gallup

Over/Under: 6

Pick: Under. The Broncos move up in classification into 5A from 4A for the 2016 season. They are coming off a 5-5 season and looking to make a move as they sit around .500 for the past three years. I think this could be a dip year however with a prediction of a 4-6 season. The district is improved with Farmington, Aztec, Miyamura and Bloomfield being possible playoff teams. Los Alamos will be improved, Snowflake (Arizona) returns after a 11-2 season with a stud RB and Navajo Prep is a quality opponent. The Broncos will be a team that could surprise but right now not ready to take the bet but wouldn't be shocked if they upset teams.

LOS ALAMOS HILLTOPPERS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Pojoaque Valley
9/2 - at Moriarty
9/9 - Grants
9/16 - Kirtland Central
9/23 - at Gallup
9/30 - at Santa Fe
10/8 - at Del Norte
10/14 - Albuquerque Academy
10/28 - at Espanola Valley
11/4 - Capital

Over/Under: 5

Pick: Par. The Hilltoppers went 4-6 last season, having the opportunity to improve on the mark in 2016. The Hilltoppers will graduate their go-to running back but have slowly continued to build a tough dark horse of a team that could be looking for the breakout season. Prediction is 5-wins for the Hilltoppers but a lot will depend on how they fill the holes that they have empty.

LOS LUNAS TIGERS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Aztec
9/2 - at Alamogordo
9/9 - Del Norte
9/16 - Roswell
9/24 - at Rio Grande
9/30 - at Artesia
10/14 - at Belen
10/21 - St. Pius X
10/28 - at Grants
11/4 - Valencia

Over/Under: 6

Pick: Over. Okay, getting back to 6-wins will be tough especially when you look at the first four games to the schedule for the Tigers. I don't think another team in 5A to this point as a more difficult "welcome to the 2016 season" than the Tigers do. Yes, schedule the best to prove you are the best but the first four games could come against 4-teams making the state tournament. Also, the first two are on the road, Aztec will be better than projected. On the road to Alamogordo could be a preview of a possible late November/early December game. Add Artesia in September and maybe outside of two games (Grants/Rio Grande) the Tigers will be looking to stay off the endangered species list. Saying all of that, I still say 7-wins going into the playoffs.

LOVINGTON WILDCATS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Denver City, Texas
9/2 - Portales
9/9 -at Ruidoso
9/16 - Hobbs
9/24 - at St. Pius X
9/30 - Capital
10/7 - at Santa Teresa
10/21 - Goddard
10/28 - Roswell
11/4 - Artesia

Over/Under: 3

Pick: Par. Lovington experienced an unusual season going 1-9 in 2015. At one time the Wildcats were one of the most dominate programs in their classification. Since 2013 the Wildcats have been struggling for the most part going 7-23. The Wildcats will have some returning players, graduating only a few, making the transition to a new head coach a little more at ease in Wildcat Country. The tough news is the Wildcats will play a schedule that could have them under .500. The district the best in the classification with the likely hood that 3 of 4 go to the state tournament. Also, dates with St. Pius and now Capital with region rival Hobbs in the three weeks leading to District play could have them ending on a tough streak. Prediction is 3-7.

MIYAMURA PATRIOTS

2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Grants
9/2 - Rio Grande
9/16 - Capital
9/23 - at Espanola Valley
10/14 -Gallup
10/21 - at Kirtland Central
10/28 - Farmington
11/4 - at Aztec
TBA - Bloomfield
TBA - Missing 1 Game

Over/Under: 4

Pick: Under. The Patriots are returning off a 3-7 season losing their last 6-games after a 3-1 start in 2015. The Patriots have some prospects returning in quarterback Matt Chavez who accounted for more than 1,000 yards on the ground or in the air. The 2018 class is a good one for the Patriots as well with some young talent getting experience last season. The bad news is the schedule also has plenty of teams with talent returning. Outside of the opening two games the Patriots could be in for a tough end to their season. Right now the prediction is another 3-7 season, depending on the game not listed on their schedule.

ROSWELL COYOTES

2016 Schedule
8/26 - Ruidoso
9/2 - Gadsden
9/9 - Hobbs
9/16 - at Los Lunas
9/23 - Belen
9/30 -at Farmington
10/14 - Alamogordo
10/21 - at Artesia
10/28 - at Lovington
11/4 - Goddard

Over/Under: 7

Pick: Under. The Coyotes went 7-5 last season, winning in the opening round of the state tournament. Getting back to 7-wins is possible with playoff win and we are not taking anything away from the Coyotes picking under. Prediction is 6 regular season wins like last season but the district and pre-district schedule has some difficult hurdles. Dates with Hobbs, Los Lunas and Alamogordo along with rising Belen and Farmington provided a difficult 5-game stretch before district play.


Note: This feature will be updated daily with new schedules and over/under predictions.

Bloomfield (Schedule Incomplete)
Capital (Schedule Incomplete)
Chaparral (Schedule Incomplete)
 
Last edited:
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT

Go Big.
Get Premium.

Join Rivals to access this premium section.

  • Say your piece in exclusive fan communities.
  • Unlock Premium news from the largest network of experts.
  • Dominate with stats, athlete data, Rivals250 rankings, and more.
Log in or subscribe today Go Back