6A FOOTBALL
Grine's NMPreps Bracket Projections
Oh boy, 6A football is going to be a fun watch over the next four weeks! The bubble has taken on a huge role in determining who will secure the final four, maybe five or six, spots in the 6A bracket. We can all agree on the top three teams—La Cueva, Centennial, and Cleveland—though Cleveland faces a tough road ahead with two Group 1 At-Large teams in their District 1-6A: Volcano Vista and their rival Rio Rancho. Also in that group is Las Cruces from District 3-6A, who will look to challenge Centennial, the story of the season.
Group 2 features Los Lunas (2-6A) and Hobbs (3-6A), who are not guaranteed locks and could be considered in Group 3, or as we’ve labeled it, the Bubble. Now, the Bubble is quite big as we head into the heart of district play—Carlsbad, Albuquerque, Farmington, and Eldorado claimed the final spots this week.
Here’s how the "OUT" teams stand: Piedra Vista beat Sandia, Sandia beat Cibola, Alamogordo beat Piedra Vista, Albuquerque beat Alamogordo. Cibola beat Albuquerque, West Mesa lacks a 6A win, Eldorado beat Organ Mountain and Cibola, Carlsbad beat Cibola, and Organ Mountain beat Alamogordo.
5A FOOTBALL
Grine's 5A Playoff Projections and Soapbox: Breaking Down 5A Football
The 5A bracket should have no more than 10 playoff teams, especially with only 16 teams in the classification. As I step onto my soapbox, I believe there should be a bylaw in the NMAA playoffs that limits the percentage of teams allowed to make the playoffs. If there are only 15 teams in a classification, fewer teams should qualify.
Okay, back to the feature. I’ve tried to argue that a team from District 1-5A should be in the top four, but I’m done doing so. Now, I contend that perhaps seven of the top eight teams will come from District 2-5A. Seeds 9 to 12 will come from 2-5A as well. We gave district leader Los Alamos one of the top eight seeds this week, placing them at No. 9, with Highland holding the edge for now.
Miyamura beat Belen, Belen beat Valley, and Valley beat Miyamura. How can Capital join the group? We’ll have to wait until they play them over the next three to four weeks. Santa Teresa is in the mix for fun, and if they can upset one of the others in their district, they could steal a playoff spot.
4A FOOTBALL
4A Football: Bloomfield and District 1-4A Running The Show
Like my shout from the rooftop in 5A football, with only 15 teams in 4A, there should be no more than 8 or 10 teams making the state playoffs. Or, go the complete opposite way and allow all teams to make the playoffs, giving them one more game in a playoff atmosphere. In 4A football, I’ll make the bold prediction that it’s Bloomfield’s title to lose—I pick them over the field.
Bernalillo is tough, but I would have liked them more had they put some distance between themselves and Española Valley, unless I’m not giving the Sundevils enough credit. St. Pius X and Manzano are the current favorites in District 2-4A, but Portales will linger around. We only featured 14 of 15 teams, leaving off the mess that is Aztec.
The biggest surprise at this point in the season, as district play really heats up, is Albuquerque Academy sitting at 14. That loss to Chaparral was a shocker. Teams in our At-Large Group 2 will fight for the final home playoff spot and the 8-seed, with Valencia holding the edge at the moment over Grants and Moriarty.
The big question is, will District 1-4A get seeds 1-3? We currently have St. Pius X at No. 3, but will Española Valley jump them? Imagine Española Valley and Bernalillo with top-four seeds—times sure have changed.
3A FOOTBALL
3A Football: A Potential Repeat of the 2023 State Championship Game in 2024
St. Michael's, Robertson, and Dexter are currently the favorites to win the championship in this classification, with the northern schools—St. Michael's and Robertson—seemingly on a collision course for a repeat of the 2023 state championship game. Dexter, however, is a sneaky talented squad. Yes, they’re undefeated and ranked No. 3, but they’ve shown some vulnerability in games against West Las Vegas and Grants, which keeps them out of the top-two conversation.
New Mexico Military, Socorro, and West Las Vegas fall into the next tier of teams and might be considered sleepers. Pojoaque, benefiting from their drop to 3A, sits at 4-1 overall, and we have them as the 7-seed. They lead our Group 2 along with Hatch Valley, Hope Christian, and Hot Springs—two of these teams will secure a home playoff game.
Thoreau is a district champion, but we have them at No. 11. It would be a shame to place them in the top eight, especially after their loss to Hot Springs. Cobre holds the final seed, but Tohatchi, the runner-up in Thoreau's district, could steal that spot. We’ve listed Ruidoso and Crownpoint, but their playoff hopes are hanging by a very thin thread.
2A FOOTBALL
2A Football: Texico Creating Separation for a 2024 Repeat
The defending state champion Texico Wolverines were projected in the preseason to take a step back after their 2023 title, but it appears they are in prime shape to repeat in 2024. Eunice remains solid and is our top contender, setting up the possibility of a rematch.
District 2-2A forms our second tier, with district leaders Legacy Academy and Santa Rosa holding the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds. Loving, from the Texico/Eunice district, is another strong contender.
Raton hangs on to Group 1 but is coming off two tough losses to 3A powers Robertson and St. Michael's, which may have them battle-tested for District 2. McCurdy is the favorite to win District 1 and currently holds the 8-seed.
The bubble has Estancia IN with the final playoff spot, but Laguna-Acoma could steal that slot. While we respect that Estancia played a tough schedule, having only one win might keep them out in favor of a Laguna-Acoma team that could finish with four wins.
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What do you have? Who are the 12 teams that will go dancing?
Grine's NMPreps Bracket Projections
Oh boy, 6A football is going to be a fun watch over the next four weeks! The bubble has taken on a huge role in determining who will secure the final four, maybe five or six, spots in the 6A bracket. We can all agree on the top three teams—La Cueva, Centennial, and Cleveland—though Cleveland faces a tough road ahead with two Group 1 At-Large teams in their District 1-6A: Volcano Vista and their rival Rio Rancho. Also in that group is Las Cruces from District 3-6A, who will look to challenge Centennial, the story of the season.
Group 2 features Los Lunas (2-6A) and Hobbs (3-6A), who are not guaranteed locks and could be considered in Group 3, or as we’ve labeled it, the Bubble. Now, the Bubble is quite big as we head into the heart of district play—Carlsbad, Albuquerque, Farmington, and Eldorado claimed the final spots this week.
Here’s how the "OUT" teams stand: Piedra Vista beat Sandia, Sandia beat Cibola, Alamogordo beat Piedra Vista, Albuquerque beat Alamogordo. Cibola beat Albuquerque, West Mesa lacks a 6A win, Eldorado beat Organ Mountain and Cibola, Carlsbad beat Cibola, and Organ Mountain beat Alamogordo.
5A FOOTBALL
Grine's 5A Playoff Projections and Soapbox: Breaking Down 5A Football
The 5A bracket should have no more than 10 playoff teams, especially with only 16 teams in the classification. As I step onto my soapbox, I believe there should be a bylaw in the NMAA playoffs that limits the percentage of teams allowed to make the playoffs. If there are only 15 teams in a classification, fewer teams should qualify.
Okay, back to the feature. I’ve tried to argue that a team from District 1-5A should be in the top four, but I’m done doing so. Now, I contend that perhaps seven of the top eight teams will come from District 2-5A. Seeds 9 to 12 will come from 2-5A as well. We gave district leader Los Alamos one of the top eight seeds this week, placing them at No. 9, with Highland holding the edge for now.
Miyamura beat Belen, Belen beat Valley, and Valley beat Miyamura. How can Capital join the group? We’ll have to wait until they play them over the next three to four weeks. Santa Teresa is in the mix for fun, and if they can upset one of the others in their district, they could steal a playoff spot.
4A FOOTBALL
4A Football: Bloomfield and District 1-4A Running The Show
Like my shout from the rooftop in 5A football, with only 15 teams in 4A, there should be no more than 8 or 10 teams making the state playoffs. Or, go the complete opposite way and allow all teams to make the playoffs, giving them one more game in a playoff atmosphere. In 4A football, I’ll make the bold prediction that it’s Bloomfield’s title to lose—I pick them over the field.
Bernalillo is tough, but I would have liked them more had they put some distance between themselves and Española Valley, unless I’m not giving the Sundevils enough credit. St. Pius X and Manzano are the current favorites in District 2-4A, but Portales will linger around. We only featured 14 of 15 teams, leaving off the mess that is Aztec.
The biggest surprise at this point in the season, as district play really heats up, is Albuquerque Academy sitting at 14. That loss to Chaparral was a shocker. Teams in our At-Large Group 2 will fight for the final home playoff spot and the 8-seed, with Valencia holding the edge at the moment over Grants and Moriarty.
The big question is, will District 1-4A get seeds 1-3? We currently have St. Pius X at No. 3, but will Española Valley jump them? Imagine Española Valley and Bernalillo with top-four seeds—times sure have changed.
3A FOOTBALL
3A Football: A Potential Repeat of the 2023 State Championship Game in 2024
St. Michael's, Robertson, and Dexter are currently the favorites to win the championship in this classification, with the northern schools—St. Michael's and Robertson—seemingly on a collision course for a repeat of the 2023 state championship game. Dexter, however, is a sneaky talented squad. Yes, they’re undefeated and ranked No. 3, but they’ve shown some vulnerability in games against West Las Vegas and Grants, which keeps them out of the top-two conversation.
New Mexico Military, Socorro, and West Las Vegas fall into the next tier of teams and might be considered sleepers. Pojoaque, benefiting from their drop to 3A, sits at 4-1 overall, and we have them as the 7-seed. They lead our Group 2 along with Hatch Valley, Hope Christian, and Hot Springs—two of these teams will secure a home playoff game.
Thoreau is a district champion, but we have them at No. 11. It would be a shame to place them in the top eight, especially after their loss to Hot Springs. Cobre holds the final seed, but Tohatchi, the runner-up in Thoreau's district, could steal that spot. We’ve listed Ruidoso and Crownpoint, but their playoff hopes are hanging by a very thin thread.
2A FOOTBALL
2A Football: Texico Creating Separation for a 2024 Repeat
The defending state champion Texico Wolverines were projected in the preseason to take a step back after their 2023 title, but it appears they are in prime shape to repeat in 2024. Eunice remains solid and is our top contender, setting up the possibility of a rematch.
District 2-2A forms our second tier, with district leaders Legacy Academy and Santa Rosa holding the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds. Loving, from the Texico/Eunice district, is another strong contender.
Raton hangs on to Group 1 but is coming off two tough losses to 3A powers Robertson and St. Michael's, which may have them battle-tested for District 2. McCurdy is the favorite to win District 1 and currently holds the 8-seed.
The bubble has Estancia IN with the final playoff spot, but Laguna-Acoma could steal that slot. While we respect that Estancia played a tough schedule, having only one win might keep them out in favor of a Laguna-Acoma team that could finish with four wins.
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What do you have? Who are the 12 teams that will go dancing?
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