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FINAL Projection: 2A Girls Basketball

Apollo221

NMPreps Hall Of Fame
Feb 13, 2013
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Albuquerque
FINAL District Standings (Regular Season)

District 1
Dulce 11-1
Rehoboth Christian 8-4
Tse' Yi' Gai 8-4
Newcomb 8-4
Navajo Pine 5-7
Ramah 2-10
Northwest 0-12

District 2
McCurdy 8-0
ATC 5-3
DA/SFW 3-4
Tierra Encantada 2-6
Monte Del Sol 2-6

District 3
Mescalero Apache 7-1
Lordsburg 7-1
Cloudcroft 5-4
Capitan 1-7
Mesilla Valley 1-7

District 4
Loving 4-2
Jal 4-2
Eunice 4-2
Hagerman 0-6

District 5
Penasco 10-0
Questa 6-4
Mora 5-5
Escalante 5-5
Mesa Vista 4-6
Coronado 0-10

District 6
Estancia 10-0
Magdalena 7-3
Alamo Navajo 7-3
NACA 4-6
Menaul 2-8
MAS 0-10

District 7
Texico 6-0
Pecos 4-2
Clayton 2-4
Santa Rosa 0-6

FINAL PROJECTED STATE TOURNAMENT SEEDING - Sunday Afternoon

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No. 1 Texico
District Finish: 1st
Head-To-Head: 2-0 vs. Pecos
Wins vs. DCs: Five (5) - Tatum (twice), Tucumcari (twice), and Melrose
Overall Record: 22-3 for 88.00%
Maxpreps Rank: 1
Coaches' Poll: 1

Note: Texico has it outright. True #1 seed.

No. 2. Penasco
District Finish: 1st
Head-To-Head: W vs. Dulce; L vs. Pecos
Wins vs. DCs: Five (5) - Cimarron (twice), McCurdy (twice), and Dulce
Overall Record: 24-3 for 88.89%
Maxpreps Rank: 2
Coaches' Poll: 2

UPDATE: Penasco has a chance to get the 1-seed. Will need overwhelming support in Coaches' Poll but that's the only way they can get it.

No. 3 Pecos
District Finish: 2nd
Head-To-Head: 0-2 vs. Texico, W vs. Estancia, W vs. Penasco.
Wins vs. DCs: Three (3) - Estancia, Penasco, and McCurdy
Overall Record: 19-6 for 76.00%
Maxpreps Rank: 3
Coaches' Poll: 3

UPDATE: It's still looking a bit shaky. Dulce and Lordsburg can overtake Pecos for the 3-seed. With Lordsburg and Dulce it could turn into a 3-way tie and the wild tiebreaker that could place any of the three in the 3-seed. This is the first of many messes coming up in 2A.

No. 4 Dulce
District Finish: 1st
Head-To-Head: L vs. Penasco
Wins vs. DCs: Two (2) - McCurdy and Navajo Prep
Overall Record: 20-6 for 77.78%
Maxpreps Rank: 5
Coaches' Poll: 5

UPDATE: While they can't lose to Estancia with the tiebreaker and such, they can lose to a Clayton team if the Lady Yellowjackets get enough votes to push them ahead of Dulce.

No. 5 Lordsburg
District Finish: T-1st
Head-To-Head: 2-2 vs. Mescalero Apache
Wins vs. DCs: Three (3) - Cliff (twice) and Mescalero Apache
Overall Record: 21-8 for 72.41%
Maxpreps Rank: 6
Coaches' Poll: 7
.
No. 6 Clayton
District Finish: 3rd
Head-To-Head: N/A
Wins vs. DCs: Three (3) - Cimarron (twice) and Logan
Overall Record: 15-11 for 57.69%
Maxpreps Rank: 4
Coaches' Poll: 8

UPDATE: Previously, I had said Clayton couldn't finish better than Estancia. Well, as the numbers worked and I projected Clayton to have a favorable Coaches' Input, they can in fact jump ahead of Estancia. I still think Clayton won't be seeded higher than this but with the way 2A is and my overall confidence I really can't say with 100% confidence anymore.


No. 7 Estancia
District Finish: 1st
Head-To-Head: L vs. Pecos
Wins vs. DCs: One (1) - McCurdy
Overall Record: 21-5 for 80.77%
Maxpreps Rank: 8
Coaches' Poll: 4


No. 8 Mescalero Apache
District Finish: T-1st
Head-To-Head: 2-2 vs. Lordsburg
Wins vs. DCs: One (1) - Hondo Valley
Overall Record: 20-7 for 74.07%
Maxpreps Rank: 7
Coaches' Poll: 6


No. 9 Magdalena
District Finish: T-2nd
Head-To-Head: 2-1 vs. Alamo Navajo
Wins vs. DCs: Two (2) - Pine Hill and Melrose
Overall Record: 18-10 for 64.29%
Maxpreps Rank: 9
Coaches' Poll: 9


No. 10 Alamo Navajo
District Finish: T-2nd
Head-To-Head: 1-2 vs. Magdalena
Wins vs. DCs: One (1) - Hondo Valley
Overall Record: 18-10 for 64.29%
Maxpreps Rank: 11
Coaches' Poll: 13


No. 11 Cloudcroft
District Finish: 3rd
Head-To-Head: N/A
Wins vs. DCs: Two (2) - Hondo Valley (twice)
Overall Record: 16-10 for 61.54%
Maxpreps Rank: 12
Coaches' Poll: 16

Note: Cloudcroft is one of those teams that I wish had their fair shot at a title run. But they finished behind Mescalero and Lordsburg while also not getting the key wins they needed. But for the time being they're in the tournament field. That might change though if District 4 gets a different district tournament winner and with Loving already claiming one auto-bid, it might send Cloudcroft back home.


No. 12 Rehoboth Christian
District Finish: T-2nd
Head-To-Head (H2H): 2-1 vs. Newcomb; 1-1 vs. Tse' Yi' Gai
Wins vs. DCs: None (0)
Overall Record: 17-11 for 60.71%
Maxpreps Rank: 13
Coaches' Poll: 10

Note: Every team in the 11-seed through 15-seed mix could be moved around in almost any order given the amount of 3-way ties (rock-paper-scissors conundrum in criteria points). Using the NMAA's method (not at all specific on some details) this is the order that drew out.
It's all because of the district finish between Rehoboth, Newcomb, and Tse' Yi' Gai who all finished tied for 2nd place. I gave Rehoboth the advantage after summing up the head-to-head record between the three of them (Rehoboth 3-2; TYG 2-2; Newcomb 2-3).

No. 13 McCurdy
District Finish: 1st
Head-To-Head: N/A
Wins vs. DCs: None (0)
Overall Record: 16-10 for 61.54%
Maxpreps Rank: 16
Coaches' Poll: 11

Note: I'm not a big fan of McCurdy here at the 12-seed. But wildly enough, they got criteria points to hang in this area of the bracket. They even have a winning hand against Newcomb (told you it was a mess).

No. 14 Newcomb
District Finish: T-2nd
Head-To-Head: 1-2 vs. Rehoboth; 1-1 vs. Tse' Yi' Gai
Wins vs. DCs: One (1) - Dulce
Overall Record: 15-14 for 51.72%
Maxpreps Rank: 10
Coaches' Poll: 12

Note: It's not what I like that matters but the criteria matchups. Newcomb could just as easily be in the 10-spot or in the 14-seed. It all comes down to how this tie works itself out. Another win against a District Champion (Dulce) could come in handy. I gave them the benefit against TYG but that could easily be swapped.

No. 15 Tse' Yi' Gai
District Finish: T-2nd
Head-To-Head: 1-1 vs. Rehoboth Christian; 1-1 vs. Newcomb
Wins vs. DCs: None (0)
Overall Record: 15-8 for 65.22%
Maxpreps Rank: 14
Coaches' Poll: 14


No. 16 Loving
District Finish: 1st
Head-To-Head: 5-0 vs. Jal; 0-2 vs. 1-2 vs. Eunice
Wins vs. DCs: None (0)
Overall Record: 15-11 for 57.69%
Maxpreps Rank: 18
Coaches' Poll: 15

Note: I'm not a big fan of district champs on the road especially as a 16-seed (it's happened before; ask Alamogordo). It's just the way the criteria falls, and if you don't get the necessary wins in the regular season, this is where you'll find yourself. Thankfully, Loving has earned their spot after that whole debacle with the district not even thinking of holding a playoff game for first (after the 3-way tie) and basically handing Jal the auto-bid.


OLD PROJECTION
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