3A: New Mexico High School Football First Round Preview & Predictions
The 2024 New Mexico high school football playoffs are kicking off, and with the first-round matchups set, we’re diving into the teams, players, and factors to watch as they vie for a spot in the next round. Below is a breakdown of each game scheduled for the weekend of November 8th and 9th, including predictions, key players, and Grine’s picks.
3A - First Round - Nov 8/9
#5 NMMI vs #12 Hot Springs, Friday, 7pm
#6 West Las Vegas vs #11 Ruidoso, Saturday, 1pm
#7 Hatch Valley vs #10 Pojoaque Valley, Saturday, 12pm
#8 Hope Christian vs #9 Thoreau, Friday, 7pm
PREVIEWS
No. 5 New Mexico Military Colts (7-3) vs. No. 12 Hot Springs Tigers (4-6)
In the opening round of the 3A New Mexico high school football playoffs, District 3-3A rivals, the NMMI Colts and the Hot Springs Tigers, face off in a highly anticipated matchup. The Colts, entering as the No. 5 seed, are a strong playoff contender with potential for another semifinal appearance, echoing last season’s success as a 5-seed. In their regular season meeting, NMMI took a decisive 35-0 victory over Hot Springs, showcasing a powerful first half that set the tone.
NMMI opened the season strong, going 4-1, including four shutout wins, with their only loss being a close one to Eunice, decided in the final quarter. After a loss to the No. 2-ranked Dexter, the Colts bounced back with three straight victories before a narrow 42-35 defeat against Socorro in the regular season finale. Key to their success is the dynamic play of junior quarterback Cole Seidenberger, a dual-threat talent and 3A All-New Mexico candidate, who has racked up 18 touchdowns this season. Running back Cohen Tomasits adds further firepower with 773 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. Defensively, the Colts are anchored by seniors Sawyer Hull and Nathan Martinez, alongside standout sophomore Tristian Carranza, who leads the team with 49 total tackles and four sacks. Young talents Grant Maloney and Marcus Kannady also bolster the defense.
Hot Springs, led by first-year head coach Maximus Buckingham, has found new momentum, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2019 (back when head coach Buckingham was still playing for the UTEP Miners). They started the season with an emotional last-second win over Tularosa (20-18) and compiled a 3-1 record early. District play, however, presented significant challenges, and the Tigers struggled with a 1-5 finish, carrying a three-game losing streak into the postseason. Despite recent setbacks, this year’s playoff appearance has already exceeded preseason expectations, marking a successful step forward in Hot Springs’ rebuilding efforts.
Prediction:
- NMMI 30, Hot Springs 12
- Favorite: NMMI, -15.5
- Over/Under: 44 points
- Grine's Pick: NMMI
No. 8 Hope Christian Huskies (4-6) vs. No. 9 Thoreau Hawks (8-2)
In another first-round 3A playoff showdown on Friday night, the Hope Christian Huskies, the No. 8 seed, host the No. 9 seed Thoreau Hawks at Milne Stadium. This matchup pits District 2-3A’s Hope Christian against the District 1-3A champions, Thoreau. These teams have a bit of playoff history, having met in the 2021 playoffs where Thoreau edged out a 19-13 victory before advancing to face St. Michael's in the quarterfinals—a prize the winner of this game will also earn.
Hope Christian had a challenging start to the season, opening with a 1-3 record after an initial win over Del Norte. They stumbled with three straight losses to Legacy Academy (2A), Albuquerque Academy (4A), and Manzano (4A) but rebounded with wins over Estancia and Santa Fe Indian. Their strongest win of the season came in district play, where they handled Pojoaque Valley 35-6. Leading the Huskies’ offense is junior quarterback Roman Montoya, a dual-threat talent with 1,590 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 209 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns. A key weapon for Montoya is standout senior receiver Breylon Williams, who has quietly had one of the best seasons in 3A, amassing 1,316 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. On defense, Krew Ward (2026) leads with a team-high 92 total tackles, while senior Chaney Cecil adds experience. Freshman standout Kashton Ewen has made an impact with 9 sacks and 46 total tackles, showing promise as a young defensive force.
Thoreau enters the playoffs on a hot streak, riding a 7-game win streak as one of the top teams from the northwest region of 3A football. With 24 wins over the past three years, they’ve maintained a consistent presence as a program to watch, capped by an 8-2 season this year. The Hawks’ offense is powered by the senior 1-2 punch of quarterback Stetson Perry and running back Elam Smith. Perry has thrown for 1,193 passing yards and 19 passing touchdowns, while Smith has racked up 1,033 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns. On defense, Sage Westmoreland (2026) anchors the Hawks with 85 total tackles, making him a player to watch in this game.
Prediction:
- Hope Christian 28, Thoreau 27
- Favorite: Hope Christian, -2.5
- Over/Under: 46 points
- Grine's Pick: Hope
