Feature Class 2A: First Round Preview and Predictions
- By J Grine
Class 2A: First Round Preview and Predictions
The Class 2A Girls State Tournament tips off this weekend with eight first-round matchups across New Mexico, as teams chase their shot at the blue trophy. Here’s a breakdown of the bracket-opening games, starting with the top-seeded Coyotes.
Tatum thrives on its relentless full-court press, creating turnovers and turning defense into quick points. Their guard play leads the way with Avery Henard (2026) controlling the tempo, Aubree Young (2025) providing reliable outside shooting, and Naomi Garcia (2028) adding youthful energy and scoring. As a team, the Coyotes are averaging nearly 60 points per game, and with home-court advantage, they are heavy favorites to advance.
The Estancia Bears earned the 16-seed with a 15-13 overall record, finishing 6-4 in district play and securing the final at-large spot in the bracket. The Bears have had a solid season but face a major challenge trying to keep pace with Tatum's high-powered attack. Estancia is averaging 43 points per game, and to stay competitive, they'll need big performances from Jhenna Valencia (2026), who leads the team with 13.9 points per game, and Karina Villafuerte (2025), adding 8.4 points per game. For the Bears to pull off the upset, they’ll need to play mistake-free basketball, slow the tempo, and hit timely shots—something no 2A team outside of Texico has managed to do against Tatum this season.
Prediction: Tatum 68, Estancia 37
Looking to spoil the party is 15-seed Hozho Academy, a rising program that has made impressive strides, reaching the state tournament in just their second full season. The Gallup-based Wolves finished the year 16-12 overall and 7-3 in District 1-2A, leaning on a young core and gaining valuable postseason experience for the future. Sophomore Khloe Todecheenie leads the way with 11 points per game, and much of the roster is built around underclassmen who have helped lay the foundation for the program's early success.
While Hozho Academy’s rapid growth is a great storyline, the depth, experience, and scoring power of Mesa Vista will likely be too much to handle. Expect the Trojans to push the pace and take control early in front of their home crowd as they look to keep their win streak alive and advance comfortably into the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Mesa Vista 69, Hozho Academy 41.
Making the nearly six-hour trip from the southeast corner of the state, the Jal Panthers face a tough task on the road. Jal enters with a 12-16 overall record, and while they have some promising young talent, the challenge of slowing down Pecos on their home floor is significant. Sophomore Mayrin Nieto leads Jal with 11 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, with contributions from Johnna Butts (2026) and freshman Natalia Rivera, but the long road trip and Pecos' pressure defense could make for a difficult night.
It’s Panthers vs. Panthers in this one, but expect Pecos to dominate from the jump as they look to advance comfortably to the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Pecos 65, Jal 39.
The Warriors are built on experience, featuring five seniors who know what it takes this time of year. Kaylena Chinana, a left-handed sharpshooter, brings deep range and quick scoring ability. Fellow senior Myalynn Madalena adds another weapon on the perimeter, while inside presence comes from Morgan Toya and Leylana Medina, who both give Jemez Valley toughness on the glass and in the paint.
For Legacy Academy, it has been a strong season with a 19-8 record and a runner-up finish in District 2-2A. They’re led by Kaleigh Carrasco (2025), who averages 13.6 points per game, and rising star Eden Griffis, just an 8th grader, contributing 10.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. Despite their youth, Legacy has kept things competitive with Jemez Valley, especially in their earlier meetings. However, in last weekend's district final, Jemez Valley pulled away for a dominant 54-26 victory, and with the same matchup on the same court, it’s tough to expect a much different result this time around.
Prediction: Jemez Valley 61, Legacy Academy 34.
The Class 2A Girls State Tournament tips off this weekend with eight first-round matchups across New Mexico, as teams chase their shot at the blue trophy. Here’s a breakdown of the bracket-opening games, starting with the top-seeded Coyotes.
#1 Tatum vs. #16 Estancia, 6 p.m.
The Tatum Coyotes enter the postseason as the clear favorite in Class 2A, finishing the regular season 23-5 overall and 9-1 in District 4-2A. Winners of nine straight games, Tatum has been dominant down the stretch, with their only in-state 2A losses coming to rival Texico. Under the legendary guidance of head coach Greg Slover, who is quietly approaching 900 career victories (sitting at 885 wins entering the tournament), the Coyotes are set up to make another deep run.Tatum thrives on its relentless full-court press, creating turnovers and turning defense into quick points. Their guard play leads the way with Avery Henard (2026) controlling the tempo, Aubree Young (2025) providing reliable outside shooting, and Naomi Garcia (2028) adding youthful energy and scoring. As a team, the Coyotes are averaging nearly 60 points per game, and with home-court advantage, they are heavy favorites to advance.
The Estancia Bears earned the 16-seed with a 15-13 overall record, finishing 6-4 in district play and securing the final at-large spot in the bracket. The Bears have had a solid season but face a major challenge trying to keep pace with Tatum's high-powered attack. Estancia is averaging 43 points per game, and to stay competitive, they'll need big performances from Jhenna Valencia (2026), who leads the team with 13.9 points per game, and Karina Villafuerte (2025), adding 8.4 points per game. For the Bears to pull off the upset, they’ll need to play mistake-free basketball, slow the tempo, and hit timely shots—something no 2A team outside of Texico has managed to do against Tatum this season.
Prediction: Tatum 68, Estancia 37
#2 Mesa Vista vs. #15 Hozho Academy, 6 p.m.
The Mesa Vista Trojans are entering the postseason as one of the hottest teams in Class 2A, boasting a 24-3 overall record and riding a 13-game winning streak. After cruising through District 5-2A with a flawless 10-0 record, the Trojans are primed for a deep tournament run. Averaging 57 points per game, Mesa Vista brings a balanced and aggressive attack led by standout guard Tana Lopez (2025), who does it all with 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.5 steals per game. Senior Hannah Lopez has been the perfect complement, adding 9.6 points per game and giving the Trojans a steady second option.Looking to spoil the party is 15-seed Hozho Academy, a rising program that has made impressive strides, reaching the state tournament in just their second full season. The Gallup-based Wolves finished the year 16-12 overall and 7-3 in District 1-2A, leaning on a young core and gaining valuable postseason experience for the future. Sophomore Khloe Todecheenie leads the way with 11 points per game, and much of the roster is built around underclassmen who have helped lay the foundation for the program's early success.
While Hozho Academy’s rapid growth is a great storyline, the depth, experience, and scoring power of Mesa Vista will likely be too much to handle. Expect the Trojans to push the pace and take control early in front of their home crowd as they look to keep their win streak alive and advance comfortably into the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Mesa Vista 69, Hozho Academy 41.
#3 Pecos vs. #14 Jal, 6 p.m.
The Pecos Panthers enter the state tournament on a roll, finishing 23-6 overall and claiming a share of the District 6-2A title with a 9-1 district record. Winners of seven straight, including the district tournament championship, Pecos has found its stride at the right time. Leading the charge is dynamic senior Natalia Stout (2025), putting up video game-like numbers with 17 points, 7.8 rebounds, 7.4 steals, and 3.4 assists per game. Stout's all-around game makes her one of the most impactful players in the classification, while Larcyia Sena (2025) and Breanna Bustos (2026) provide steady support, giving Pecos multiple scoring threats.Making the nearly six-hour trip from the southeast corner of the state, the Jal Panthers face a tough task on the road. Jal enters with a 12-16 overall record, and while they have some promising young talent, the challenge of slowing down Pecos on their home floor is significant. Sophomore Mayrin Nieto leads Jal with 11 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, with contributions from Johnna Butts (2026) and freshman Natalia Rivera, but the long road trip and Pecos' pressure defense could make for a difficult night.
It’s Panthers vs. Panthers in this one, but expect Pecos to dominate from the jump as they look to advance comfortably to the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Pecos 65, Jal 39.
#4 Jemez Valley vs. #13 Legacy Academy, 5:30 p.m.
In a rematch fresh off last weekend’s District 2-2A Tournament Championship, the Jemez Valley Warriors will once again host the Legacy Academy Silverbacks, this time with a spot in the state quarterfinals on the line. Jemez Valley has been one of the most consistent teams all season, finishing 24-4 overall with a district title and a strong senior core leading the way.The Warriors are built on experience, featuring five seniors who know what it takes this time of year. Kaylena Chinana, a left-handed sharpshooter, brings deep range and quick scoring ability. Fellow senior Myalynn Madalena adds another weapon on the perimeter, while inside presence comes from Morgan Toya and Leylana Medina, who both give Jemez Valley toughness on the glass and in the paint.
For Legacy Academy, it has been a strong season with a 19-8 record and a runner-up finish in District 2-2A. They’re led by Kaleigh Carrasco (2025), who averages 13.6 points per game, and rising star Eden Griffis, just an 8th grader, contributing 10.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. Despite their youth, Legacy has kept things competitive with Jemez Valley, especially in their earlier meetings. However, in last weekend's district final, Jemez Valley pulled away for a dominant 54-26 victory, and with the same matchup on the same court, it’s tough to expect a much different result this time around.
Prediction: Jemez Valley 61, Legacy Academy 34.
