4A: New Mexico High School Football First Round Preview & Predictions
The 2024 New Mexico high school football playoffs are kicking off, and with the first-round matchups set, we’re diving into the teams, players, and factors to watch as they vie for a spot in the next round. Below is a breakdown of each game scheduled for the weekend of November 8th and 9th, including predictions, key players, and Grine’s picks.
FIRST ROUND - NOVEMBER 8TH/9TH
#5 Portales vs #12 Chaparral, Friday, 7pm
#6 Espanola Valley vs #11 Manzano, Saturday, 1pm
#7 Grants vs #10 Silver, Saturday, 1pm
#8 Valencia vs #9 Moriarty, Saturday, 1pm
No. 5 Portales Rams (6-4) vs. No. 12 Chaparral Lobos (3-7)
Date: Friday, 7:00 PM
Location: Greyhound Stadium (Eastern New Mexico University, Portales, NM)
Preview: The Portales Rams, ranked fifth, enter the playoffs with hopes of making another deep run after last year's loss in the state championship. The Rams had high expectations at the start of the season, but they faced a setback when standout quarterback Paxton Culpepper (class of 2025) went down early with an injury. Senior Tommy Lopez has stepped up to fill the gap, throwing for 691 yards and 9 touchdowns. Not only a passing threat, Lopez also leads the team on the ground, rushing for 675 yards and 10 touchdowns. Freshman Slade Segovia has emerged as another offensive weapon with 378 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, hinting at a promising future for Portales. However, offensive consistency remains a question as the Rams aim for a deep playoff push.
On defense, Portales relies heavily on Lopez and Segovia, with both playing on both sides of the ball. Lopez leads with 75 total tackles, while Segovia has added 5 sacks and 56 total tackles. Another defensive force is junior Jaylon Newburn, who has racked up 69 tackles this season, and junior Rigoberto Holguin, another player to watch closely in this matchup. The Rams' defense, although young, plays with resilience and depth, making them a tough opponent for Chaparral.
Chaparral, seeded 12th, rarely makes playoff appearances, but this year, they’re entering with renewed confidence after key wins over district rivals Silver (20-14) and Albuquerque Academy (44-20). The Lobos have an exciting core of young talent, led by juniors Juan Urquiozo (class of 2026) and Israel Nieto (class of 2026), along with sophomore Raul Lopez (class of 2027). Quarterback Israel Nieto has been a dual-threat for Chaparral, amassing 1,362 passing yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 403 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. His top target, sophomore Tyvin Howard, has racked up 598 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, providing a consistent deep threat.
Defensively, Chaparral leans on senior leaders Manny Rodriguez and Reese Martinez. Rodriguez has accumulated a staggering 136 tackles and 7 sacks, while Martinez has added 114 tackles and 5 sacks. Both are standout defenders and give Chaparral’s defense a chance to keep the game competitive.
NMPreps Prediction
Score Prediction: Portales 40, Chaparral 14
Favorite: Portales, -21.5
Over/Under: 55 points
Grine's Pick: Portales
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