Henderson: District Breakdowns, Sorting Out The Playoff Picture
Working on my write up now, will feature in-depth report on where each team stands within their district and potential outcomes for playoff seeding. In the meantime, here is my latest Class 6A Playoff Predictions. I WILL push out 5A, 4A, and 3A as well. Hang tight. All feedback welcomed, wanted, and appreciated.
District Breakdowns
District 1-6A
Cleveland leads the district with a 2-0 record and still has to play: Volcano Vista, Cibola, and Rio Rancho. So really anything could happen during that stretch. If Cleveland wins out, no brainer they are the No. 1 seed.
Rio Rancho is 2-0 in district with Cibola and Cleveland left on their district schedule. If they split those final two games they’ll finish 7-3 on the season. They could argue for a top 4 spot no doubt.
Volcano Vista is now 1-1 in district play with Cleveland and Santa Fe on the schedule. Good thing for Volcano Vista is that they trounced Sandia and Manzano earlier in the season. Their losses are not bad either losing to Las Cruces, Eldorado, and to Rio Rancho on a hail mary. Good chance Hawks finish 6-4 and 2-2 in district, they’ll still host a playoff game likely.
Cibola at 5-2 and 0-1 in district could be on the verge of being knocked out of the playoffs if they don’t upset someone in district. IF they were to lose to Rio Rancho and to Cleveland with a win over Santa Fe they will end the year 6-4 and 1-3 in district. Bad news is that Manzano could be in the playoffs regardless because of the three way tie they caused in district 2-6A.
Santa Fe 0-8, 0-2 in district. I asked which teams were mathematically out and a few jumped on me for saying that “no one is out” You’re wrong. Santa Fe is done. Here is some math to back that up. They have been outscored 108-0 in their first two district games. Anyone think they are going to score against Volcano Vista or Cibola?
District 2-6A
Manzano believe it or not the Monarchs are 2-0 in the district, which puts them in first place as of today. We’ll have to wait for two long weeks until Manzano and Eldorado play on October 30th. Let’s say Manzano loses to Eldorado and beats La Cueva, they will finish with a district record of 3-1. The good news for Manzano is they are red-hot with some recent big wins making it easy to forget they lost to Volcano Vista and Cleveland big early on. Could they land a home game in the playoffs? Not sure, we’ll have to wait and see, but right now we know this: Manzano controls their own destiny: if they win their next two they are in regardless, if they lose their next two: That Cibola overtime loss will keep them home.
Eldorado is 6-2 and 1-1 on the season and Coach Charlie Dotson was straight up about their loss to Sanida. He told the Albuquerque Journal, “We didn’t play well and were outplayed.” The loss isn’t terrible, their resume and their overall body of work is still strong. If they finish 8-2 beating Manzano and Highland they’ll have a home game, but it might not come with a bye week. Don’t write this team off after a down week, everyone has one or two, they are still capable of playing into December.
Check this out: If Sandia beats La Cueva and Highland they will have finished 7-3 and 3-1 in district play. A lot depends on Manzano. If the Monarchs lose to Eldorado and to La Cueva, Sandia will be district champs as they have a head to head win over Eldorado. Crazy right? If that is the case, Sandia will land a home game in the playoffs as will Eldorado, Manzano however might be out of the playoffs in this scenario. Worst thing that could happen for Sandia is losing trap games against La Cueva or to Highland.
Highland has to beat Eldorado, La Cueva, and Sandia in their final three games in order to make the playoffs.
District 3-6A
Las Cruces controls the district right now with a 6-2, 2-0 record after beating Gadsden this past Thursday 56-6. Their remaining schedule includes Onate and Mayfield, two games they could sweep, lose, or split. Best case if they go 8-2 and 4-0 in district, they’ll land a home game with a BYE, likely landing the No. 2 spot. If they lose to Mayfield, who knows what that will mean in terms of playoff placement. I don’t even want to think about it. If Las Cruces loses to both Onate and Mayfield, all three teams are in, but at that point it might be best to just seed teams at random.
Mayfield could win district 3-6A finishing 7-3 and 4-0 in district, if that happens they could argue for a top 4, but that will be a tough argument to make being they lost to Alamogordo, Eldorado, and to Manzano. So Mayfield winning the district will cause seeding chaos in other words. Look for Mayfield to be at the worst 6-4, losing to Manzano and to Alamogordo could potentially send them on the road in the playoffs.
One of the true bubble teams right now is Onate and they are dangerous. Last week they were up on Mayfield 17-0 before losing 31-24. Last night the beat Deming 37-6. Their record is 3-5 and 1-1 in district, they have to beat Gadsden and Las Cruces to get in, it’s that simple. If Onate beats Las Cruces, that means three teams from District 3-6A get into the playoffs, but who gets bumped is the question.
Deming is 3-5 and 0-2 in district. They have to beat Mayfield and Gadsden, but even if they did it likely would not be enough to get them into the playoffs.
Gadsden 1-6, 0-1 overall on the season. Gadsden is out, they have Mayfield and Deming left on the schedule.
District 4-6A
Alamogordo is 6-1, time to see what they are really made of when they open district against Carlsbad. If Alamogordo wins just w one district game you got to think they make it with a 7-3 record unless that loss is against Carlsbad. If Alamogordo wins out: Carlsbad, Clovis, and Hobbs they are a top 4 seed, likely No. 2. Worst case for Alamogordo is Clovis goes 3-0, Hobbs goes 2-1, Alamogordo goes 1-2, and Carlsbad goes 1-2.
Clovis is 4-3 and opens district against rival Hobbs for the Little Rebel. The Wildcats can make up for their three season losses and land a home game in the playoffs if they win District, it’s that simple. They’ll be playing at home with a 7-3 record for sure. If Clovis goes 6-4 on the season, that would include one district loss, not sure if that would get them a home game, so much left to be decided for the district. If they lose two district games and finish 5-5, they’ll be glad they beat Cibola.
Hobbs is 4-3 and while we have them as a playoff lock, their lone key win is really against Onate who is a bubble team. So Hobbs really needs to turn it up in district, beat Clovis or Alamogordo punches their ticket. Worst case is they go 1-2 in district and end up 5-5 on the season, not sure if that will get you in this year.
Carlsbad is now 0-7 on the season, but still alive. Upset Alamogordo and things get super interesting. All it takes to cause drama is two wins Cavemen fans.
District 5-6A
Atrisco Heritage is 3-5, 2-0 in district. It’s simple: Beat Rio Grande and then beat West Mesa on Oct. 30th to get into the playoffs. They already beat Albuquerque so beating West Mesa is their playoff play-in game.
West Mesa is 3-5, 2-0 in district after beating Rio Grande Friday Night 48-6. They need to beat Atrisco Heritage next week and beat Albuquerque to get in. A loss is very bad, but not exactly fatal for these guys just yet.
Albuquerque 2-5, 0-1 is still alive. They just have to beat Valley, Rio Grande, and West Mesa to get into the playoffs and hope Atrisco Heritage loses to West Mesa causing a three way district tie.
Valley is 2-6 and 0-2 in district, out of the playoffs
Rio Grande is 0-7 and 0-1 in district, out of the playoffs unless they beat Atrisco, Albuquerque, and Valley and hope that West Mesa loses their remaining 2 games.
Latest Class 6A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
1. Cleveland (if they win district 1-6A)
2. Las Cruces (if they win district 3-6A)
3. Alamogordo (if they win district 4-6A)
4. Rio Rancho or Eldorado (a lot depends on how 2-6A finishes out)
5. Eldorado or Rio Rancho
6. Volcano Vista
7. Manzano
8. Mayfield
9. Clovis
10. Hobbs
11. Sandia
12. West Mesa/Atrisco Heritage (District 5-6A Champ)
Latest Class 5A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
1. Centennial 7-0, 2-0
2. Artesia 6-1, 0-0
3. St. Pius X 8-0, 0-0
4. Espanola 7-0, 1-0
5. Piedra Vista 6-2, 2-0
6. Goddard 4-3, 0-0
7. Moriarty 6-2, 0-0
8. Roswell 4-3, 0-0
9. Capital 6-2, 2-0
10. Aztec 3-5, 2-0
11. Farmington 5-3, 0-2
12. TBA
Bubble
Miyamura 3-4, 0-1
Belen 2-5, 2-0
Chaparral 5-2, 1-1
Los Lunas 3-4, 1-1
Del Norte 3-5, 1-1
Grants 4-4, 0-0
Latest Class 4A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
1. Hatch Valley 8-0, 2-0
2. Portales 7-0, 1-0
3. Cobre 5-2, 1-0
4. Robertson 5-2, 0-0
5. St. Mike’s 5-2, 1-0
6. Bloomfield 6-1, 2-0
7. Silver 4-4, 1-1
8. NMMI 6-1, 1-1
9. Hot Springs 5-3, 0-2
10. Ruidoso 3-5, 1-1
11. Hope 5-3, 0-2
12. Socorro 5-2, 1-0
Bubble
Kirtland 3-4, 2-0
Taos 3-4, 0-0
Latest Class 3A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
Class 3A
1. Estancia 7-0, 0-0
2. Dexter 5-2, 0-0
3. Lordsburg 4-3, 0-0
4. Capitan 4-3, 0-0
5. Texico 2-4, 0-0
6. Clayton 2-5, 0-0
7. Tucumcari 2-4, 0-0
8. Santa Rosa 2-5, 0-0
9. Eunice 3-3, 0-0
10. Tohatchi 5-2, 0-0
11. Laguna 2-4, 0-0
12. Mesilla Valley 2-5, 0-0
Bubble
Raton 2-5, 0-0
Loving 3-4, 0-0
Working on my write up now, will feature in-depth report on where each team stands within their district and potential outcomes for playoff seeding. In the meantime, here is my latest Class 6A Playoff Predictions. I WILL push out 5A, 4A, and 3A as well. Hang tight. All feedback welcomed, wanted, and appreciated.
District Breakdowns
District 1-6A
Cleveland leads the district with a 2-0 record and still has to play: Volcano Vista, Cibola, and Rio Rancho. So really anything could happen during that stretch. If Cleveland wins out, no brainer they are the No. 1 seed.
Rio Rancho is 2-0 in district with Cibola and Cleveland left on their district schedule. If they split those final two games they’ll finish 7-3 on the season. They could argue for a top 4 spot no doubt.
Volcano Vista is now 1-1 in district play with Cleveland and Santa Fe on the schedule. Good thing for Volcano Vista is that they trounced Sandia and Manzano earlier in the season. Their losses are not bad either losing to Las Cruces, Eldorado, and to Rio Rancho on a hail mary. Good chance Hawks finish 6-4 and 2-2 in district, they’ll still host a playoff game likely.
Cibola at 5-2 and 0-1 in district could be on the verge of being knocked out of the playoffs if they don’t upset someone in district. IF they were to lose to Rio Rancho and to Cleveland with a win over Santa Fe they will end the year 6-4 and 1-3 in district. Bad news is that Manzano could be in the playoffs regardless because of the three way tie they caused in district 2-6A.
Santa Fe 0-8, 0-2 in district. I asked which teams were mathematically out and a few jumped on me for saying that “no one is out” You’re wrong. Santa Fe is done. Here is some math to back that up. They have been outscored 108-0 in their first two district games. Anyone think they are going to score against Volcano Vista or Cibola?
District 2-6A
Manzano believe it or not the Monarchs are 2-0 in the district, which puts them in first place as of today. We’ll have to wait for two long weeks until Manzano and Eldorado play on October 30th. Let’s say Manzano loses to Eldorado and beats La Cueva, they will finish with a district record of 3-1. The good news for Manzano is they are red-hot with some recent big wins making it easy to forget they lost to Volcano Vista and Cleveland big early on. Could they land a home game in the playoffs? Not sure, we’ll have to wait and see, but right now we know this: Manzano controls their own destiny: if they win their next two they are in regardless, if they lose their next two: That Cibola overtime loss will keep them home.
Eldorado is 6-2 and 1-1 on the season and Coach Charlie Dotson was straight up about their loss to Sanida. He told the Albuquerque Journal, “We didn’t play well and were outplayed.” The loss isn’t terrible, their resume and their overall body of work is still strong. If they finish 8-2 beating Manzano and Highland they’ll have a home game, but it might not come with a bye week. Don’t write this team off after a down week, everyone has one or two, they are still capable of playing into December.
Check this out: If Sandia beats La Cueva and Highland they will have finished 7-3 and 3-1 in district play. A lot depends on Manzano. If the Monarchs lose to Eldorado and to La Cueva, Sandia will be district champs as they have a head to head win over Eldorado. Crazy right? If that is the case, Sandia will land a home game in the playoffs as will Eldorado, Manzano however might be out of the playoffs in this scenario. Worst thing that could happen for Sandia is losing trap games against La Cueva or to Highland.
Highland has to beat Eldorado, La Cueva, and Sandia in their final three games in order to make the playoffs.
District 3-6A
Las Cruces controls the district right now with a 6-2, 2-0 record after beating Gadsden this past Thursday 56-6. Their remaining schedule includes Onate and Mayfield, two games they could sweep, lose, or split. Best case if they go 8-2 and 4-0 in district, they’ll land a home game with a BYE, likely landing the No. 2 spot. If they lose to Mayfield, who knows what that will mean in terms of playoff placement. I don’t even want to think about it. If Las Cruces loses to both Onate and Mayfield, all three teams are in, but at that point it might be best to just seed teams at random.
Mayfield could win district 3-6A finishing 7-3 and 4-0 in district, if that happens they could argue for a top 4, but that will be a tough argument to make being they lost to Alamogordo, Eldorado, and to Manzano. So Mayfield winning the district will cause seeding chaos in other words. Look for Mayfield to be at the worst 6-4, losing to Manzano and to Alamogordo could potentially send them on the road in the playoffs.
One of the true bubble teams right now is Onate and they are dangerous. Last week they were up on Mayfield 17-0 before losing 31-24. Last night the beat Deming 37-6. Their record is 3-5 and 1-1 in district, they have to beat Gadsden and Las Cruces to get in, it’s that simple. If Onate beats Las Cruces, that means three teams from District 3-6A get into the playoffs, but who gets bumped is the question.
Deming is 3-5 and 0-2 in district. They have to beat Mayfield and Gadsden, but even if they did it likely would not be enough to get them into the playoffs.
Gadsden 1-6, 0-1 overall on the season. Gadsden is out, they have Mayfield and Deming left on the schedule.
District 4-6A
Alamogordo is 6-1, time to see what they are really made of when they open district against Carlsbad. If Alamogordo wins just w one district game you got to think they make it with a 7-3 record unless that loss is against Carlsbad. If Alamogordo wins out: Carlsbad, Clovis, and Hobbs they are a top 4 seed, likely No. 2. Worst case for Alamogordo is Clovis goes 3-0, Hobbs goes 2-1, Alamogordo goes 1-2, and Carlsbad goes 1-2.
Clovis is 4-3 and opens district against rival Hobbs for the Little Rebel. The Wildcats can make up for their three season losses and land a home game in the playoffs if they win District, it’s that simple. They’ll be playing at home with a 7-3 record for sure. If Clovis goes 6-4 on the season, that would include one district loss, not sure if that would get them a home game, so much left to be decided for the district. If they lose two district games and finish 5-5, they’ll be glad they beat Cibola.
Hobbs is 4-3 and while we have them as a playoff lock, their lone key win is really against Onate who is a bubble team. So Hobbs really needs to turn it up in district, beat Clovis or Alamogordo punches their ticket. Worst case is they go 1-2 in district and end up 5-5 on the season, not sure if that will get you in this year.
Carlsbad is now 0-7 on the season, but still alive. Upset Alamogordo and things get super interesting. All it takes to cause drama is two wins Cavemen fans.
District 5-6A
Atrisco Heritage is 3-5, 2-0 in district. It’s simple: Beat Rio Grande and then beat West Mesa on Oct. 30th to get into the playoffs. They already beat Albuquerque so beating West Mesa is their playoff play-in game.
West Mesa is 3-5, 2-0 in district after beating Rio Grande Friday Night 48-6. They need to beat Atrisco Heritage next week and beat Albuquerque to get in. A loss is very bad, but not exactly fatal for these guys just yet.
Albuquerque 2-5, 0-1 is still alive. They just have to beat Valley, Rio Grande, and West Mesa to get into the playoffs and hope Atrisco Heritage loses to West Mesa causing a three way district tie.
Valley is 2-6 and 0-2 in district, out of the playoffs
Rio Grande is 0-7 and 0-1 in district, out of the playoffs unless they beat Atrisco, Albuquerque, and Valley and hope that West Mesa loses their remaining 2 games.
Latest Class 6A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
1. Cleveland (if they win district 1-6A)
2. Las Cruces (if they win district 3-6A)
3. Alamogordo (if they win district 4-6A)
4. Rio Rancho or Eldorado (a lot depends on how 2-6A finishes out)
5. Eldorado or Rio Rancho
6. Volcano Vista
7. Manzano
8. Mayfield
9. Clovis
10. Hobbs
11. Sandia
12. West Mesa/Atrisco Heritage (District 5-6A Champ)
Latest Class 5A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
1. Centennial 7-0, 2-0
2. Artesia 6-1, 0-0
3. St. Pius X 8-0, 0-0
4. Espanola 7-0, 1-0
5. Piedra Vista 6-2, 2-0
6. Goddard 4-3, 0-0
7. Moriarty 6-2, 0-0
8. Roswell 4-3, 0-0
9. Capital 6-2, 2-0
10. Aztec 3-5, 2-0
11. Farmington 5-3, 0-2
12. TBA
Bubble
Miyamura 3-4, 0-1
Belen 2-5, 2-0
Chaparral 5-2, 1-1
Los Lunas 3-4, 1-1
Del Norte 3-5, 1-1
Grants 4-4, 0-0
Latest Class 4A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
1. Hatch Valley 8-0, 2-0
2. Portales 7-0, 1-0
3. Cobre 5-2, 1-0
4. Robertson 5-2, 0-0
5. St. Mike’s 5-2, 1-0
6. Bloomfield 6-1, 2-0
7. Silver 4-4, 1-1
8. NMMI 6-1, 1-1
9. Hot Springs 5-3, 0-2
10. Ruidoso 3-5, 1-1
11. Hope 5-3, 0-2
12. Socorro 5-2, 1-0
Bubble
Kirtland 3-4, 2-0
Taos 3-4, 0-0
Latest Class 3A Playoff Predictions As Of October 17th, 2015
Class 3A
1. Estancia 7-0, 0-0
2. Dexter 5-2, 0-0
3. Lordsburg 4-3, 0-0
4. Capitan 4-3, 0-0
5. Texico 2-4, 0-0
6. Clayton 2-5, 0-0
7. Tucumcari 2-4, 0-0
8. Santa Rosa 2-5, 0-0
9. Eunice 3-3, 0-0
10. Tohatchi 5-2, 0-0
11. Laguna 2-4, 0-0
12. Mesilla Valley 2-5, 0-0
Bubble
Raton 2-5, 0-0
Loving 3-4, 0-0
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