4A Girls Basketball: PIT STOP (WEEK 12)
NMPreps.com's look at the potential match-ups for the 2019 New Mexico High School Basketball State Tournament.
CURRENT DISTRICT PREDICTIONS
District 1-4A
Kirtland Central - District Co-Champion
Gallup - DRUP
Miyamura - D3P
Aztec - D4P
Shiprock - D5P
Bloomfield - D6P
District 2-4A
Los Alamos - District Champion
Pojoaque Valley - DRUP
Espanola Valley - D3P
Moriarty - D4P
Taos - D5P
District 3-4A
Silver - District Champion
Ruidoso - DRUP
Santa Teresa - D3P
Chaparral - D4P
District 4-4A
Artesia - District Co-Champion
Portales - District Co-Champion
Goddard - District Co-Champion
Lovington - D4P
District 5-4A
Los Lunas - District Champion
St. Pius X - DRUP
Grants - D3P
Belen - T-D4P
Valencia - T-D4P
STATE TOURNAMENT PREDICTIONS
HOST A FIRST ROUND GAME
1. Kirtland Central
2. Los Lunas
3. Silver
4. Gallup
5. Highland
6. St. Pius X
7. Miyamura
8. Los Alamos
So the last time I mentioned I was confident with Los Lunas keeping the number one seed. I forgot to take into consideration the wins against Gallup and such for Kirtland Central helping their ranking. It might change but for now this is how it looks for the top two seeds.
Now onto the mess that is the 3 thru 6 seeds. Los Alamos caused a mess that forces (for the time being) Pojoaque out of the top-8. That leaves a bit of a mess for that third spot and who follows. Highland has the longest shot right now given their match-up criteria against everyone else in that group, while Gallup and Silver have the next best cases with Silver beating Gallup with criteria. I'm fairly confident in this mix because of how everyone's resumes turned out so far.
Closing it out is Miyamura which some folks may not like but they beat everyone else behind them in the criteria by at least two criteria points so there's not much room for a swing just yet. Los Alamos by way of their stunning district run closes out that top 8.
NEXT FOUR
9. Pojoaque Valley
10. Artesia
11. Portales
12. Hope Christian
Well Pojoaque fans, you didn't drop THAT far out given Los Alamos' decent resume to keep them fairly high. But this isn't exactly where you'd like to be. If the Elkettes can force a tie and share of first place, they'll likely shoot their way back up to the 5-seed while Los Alamos drops back one spot to the 9-seed.
District 4 makes their appearance with Artesia leading the way. Granted the H2H is not pretty and figuring out who jumps over who from that district was soley based off the criteria match-ups. That said, Hope doesn't have enough to move ahead of Portales or Artesia, but does have the winning criteria points to stay ahead of Goddard for now. Things can still shake up, but that Artesia loss to Los Alamos really hinders Artesia's chances of jumping ahead of Los Alamos.
BUBBLE
13. Goddard
14. Espanola Valley
15. Grants
16. Bernalillo
Two weeks ago we had three of four teams in this weeks' tournament projection OUTSIDE of the tournament field. Now with some district games sorting the line up, it provides a clearer picture. Grants is now in with I'd say a 60% confidence they'll end up in the tournament field. Bernalillo is in with I'll say 40%. No guarantees though given how the rankings could change up and the district tournament results.
FIRST FOUR OUT
17. Valley/Aztec
18. Belen
19. Moriarty
20. Shiprock
Valley has a window still open to get in if Grants doesn't win out 2 of 3 and win a game in the district tournament and Valley outperforms them through the next two weeks. Aztec then has a case where they could get in if things change up late as well but it becomes a longer shot the more Aztec doesn't win games in their district.
NMPreps.com's look at the potential match-ups for the 2019 New Mexico High School Basketball State Tournament.
CURRENT DISTRICT PREDICTIONS
District 1-4A
Kirtland Central - District Co-Champion
Gallup - DRUP
Miyamura - D3P
Aztec - D4P
Shiprock - D5P
Bloomfield - D6P
District 2-4A
Los Alamos - District Champion
Pojoaque Valley - DRUP
Espanola Valley - D3P
Moriarty - D4P
Taos - D5P
District 3-4A
Silver - District Champion
Ruidoso - DRUP
Santa Teresa - D3P
Chaparral - D4P
District 4-4A
Artesia - District Co-Champion
Portales - District Co-Champion
Goddard - District Co-Champion
Lovington - D4P
District 5-4A
Los Lunas - District Champion
St. Pius X - DRUP
Grants - D3P
Belen - T-D4P
Valencia - T-D4P
STATE TOURNAMENT PREDICTIONS
HOST A FIRST ROUND GAME
1. Kirtland Central
2. Los Lunas
3. Silver
4. Gallup
5. Highland
6. St. Pius X
7. Miyamura
8. Los Alamos
So the last time I mentioned I was confident with Los Lunas keeping the number one seed. I forgot to take into consideration the wins against Gallup and such for Kirtland Central helping their ranking. It might change but for now this is how it looks for the top two seeds.
Now onto the mess that is the 3 thru 6 seeds. Los Alamos caused a mess that forces (for the time being) Pojoaque out of the top-8. That leaves a bit of a mess for that third spot and who follows. Highland has the longest shot right now given their match-up criteria against everyone else in that group, while Gallup and Silver have the next best cases with Silver beating Gallup with criteria. I'm fairly confident in this mix because of how everyone's resumes turned out so far.
Closing it out is Miyamura which some folks may not like but they beat everyone else behind them in the criteria by at least two criteria points so there's not much room for a swing just yet. Los Alamos by way of their stunning district run closes out that top 8.
NEXT FOUR
9. Pojoaque Valley
10. Artesia
11. Portales
12. Hope Christian
Well Pojoaque fans, you didn't drop THAT far out given Los Alamos' decent resume to keep them fairly high. But this isn't exactly where you'd like to be. If the Elkettes can force a tie and share of first place, they'll likely shoot their way back up to the 5-seed while Los Alamos drops back one spot to the 9-seed.
District 4 makes their appearance with Artesia leading the way. Granted the H2H is not pretty and figuring out who jumps over who from that district was soley based off the criteria match-ups. That said, Hope doesn't have enough to move ahead of Portales or Artesia, but does have the winning criteria points to stay ahead of Goddard for now. Things can still shake up, but that Artesia loss to Los Alamos really hinders Artesia's chances of jumping ahead of Los Alamos.
BUBBLE
13. Goddard
14. Espanola Valley
15. Grants
16. Bernalillo
Two weeks ago we had three of four teams in this weeks' tournament projection OUTSIDE of the tournament field. Now with some district games sorting the line up, it provides a clearer picture. Grants is now in with I'd say a 60% confidence they'll end up in the tournament field. Bernalillo is in with I'll say 40%. No guarantees though given how the rankings could change up and the district tournament results.
FIRST FOUR OUT
17. Valley/Aztec
18. Belen
19. Moriarty
20. Shiprock
Valley has a window still open to get in if Grants doesn't win out 2 of 3 and win a game in the district tournament and Valley outperforms them through the next two weeks. Aztec then has a case where they could get in if things change up late as well but it becomes a longer shot the more Aztec doesn't win games in their district.
