Week 2: Friday Night Preview & Predictions
J. Grine of NMPreps
NMPreps preview of everything to watch this weekend in New Mexico High School Football.
TOP-10 PREVIEW
No. 1 Cleveland (1-0) at EP-Franklin, TX (0-0): Round 2 between the schools with Cleveland taking the game last season in Rio Rancho, 35-21. The Storm encountered some program distractions with suspensions last week but those storms have seemed to calm. Dorian Lewis (2020) returns to El Paso, the Storm have some newcomers to keep an eye on in Luke Wysong (2021) and Trey Ortega's (2021) status jumped after last week. EP Franklin welcomed back quarterback Danny Walther who tossed for 2,198 yards last season (he went 17 for 31/293 yards/1 INT/ 0 TDs vs the Storm).
Prediction: Cleveland 28, EP Franklin 27. My Pick: Cleveland.
No. 4 Las Cruces (1-0) at No. 9 Eldorado (1-0): (Saturday) The game of the night between a pair of teams ranked in the top-10. A contender/pretender-ish type of contest. The Las Cruces Bulldawgs are coming off an impressive outing, defeating Manzano 55-27 during week one. Johnny Terrazas (2020) had a monster showing in his debut and quarterback Marcos Lopez (2021) played like a QB ready to make noise. The Eldorado Eagles looked smooth in a comfortable 51-0 win over West Mesa. They have a handful of weapons that we've mention along with a few new names. Nick Petty (2021) has looked well and now gets an early test.
Prediction: Las Cruces 35, Eldorado 27. My Pick: Las Cruces
No. 5 Centennial (1-0) vs West Mesa (0-1): If this was college football the West Mesa Mustangs would have had a pair of "buy games" by the bigger more established teams. It's not, APS athletics has decided to give the Mustangs two (three next week against Mayfield) unbeatable tasks. Centennial quarterback Aiden Trujillo (2020) will get his own but could be shutdown by the end of the first quarter.
Prediction: Centennial 51, West Mesa 0. My Pick: Centennial
No. 6 Roswell (1-0) at Lovington (1-0): A regional contest that 'has' to happen each season. If you ever had to schedule, these games help in many ways. The Roswell Coyotes are coming off a state championship year and looked good in their opening win over Ruidoso last week, 53-13. Let's keep an eye on Jasia Reese (2020) again this week as the profile continues to grow. Although this Lovington team is going to be one of the best, and they've already forgotten about the 56-14 loss from last season, look for a few surprises by the Cats in this one. They still feature a top QB in Casey Perez and if you look in the trenches they will look to disrupt things. Maybe a closer than expected contest? Roswell should cruise but Lovington won't go down easily.
Prediction: Roswell 38, Lovington 17. My Pick: Roswell.
No. 7 Rio Rancho (0-1) at Pine Creek, Colorado (0-0): The Rio Rancho Rams have to recover after dropping a gut wrenching loss in overtime to Centennial at home in overtime. Now they must turnaround a take on a really good Pine Creek team. The Eagles won the contest last season, 45-23, and return a very good running back in David Moore III, that rushed for nearly 1,500 yards last season. The Rams are improved this season and Isaiah Chavez (2020) looked good last weekend totaling for 5 touchdowns. Prediction: Pine Creek 40, Rio Rancho 28. My Pick: Pine Creek
No. 8 Los Lunas (1-0) at No. 10 Clovis (1-0): One of the best cross-classification games of the weekend. The Los Lunas Tigers (ranked 2nd in 5A) are looking to make some noise as they travel to 6A Clovis and facing a big crowd at Leon Williams stadium. Both feature a plethora of talent and next level talent. Clovis has quarterback Chance Harris (2021) and running back Jeston Webskowski (2021) which had the opening night of all prospect risers in the state. Webskowski rushed for 171-yards last week and with another showing like this could really place him in conversations when preseason awards come out. He will have to encounter a very big and good Los Lunas defense that features D_1 prosect Tyler Kiehne along with a strong supporting cast. Los Lunas routed Piedra Vista 28-0 last week, we witnessed the arm of Kade Benavidez and he will have to be on his target in this one with Clovis features a good secondary. Prediction: Clovis 28, Los Lunas 24. My Pick: Clovis.
OUTSIDE THE TOP TEN
No. 12 Carlsbad (1-0) at No. 14 Goddard (1-0): Plenty of intrigue in this contest with a very good-big Goddard team taking on Carlsbad that is looking to slip into things as a 'dark horse'. Nate Najar (2020) for Carlsbad and Sammy Zaragoza (2021) for Goddard on the offense watch. If one breaks out for a big game it could be the difference maker. Prediction: Carlsbad 21, Goddard 20. My Pick: Carlsbad.
No. 13 Artesia (0-1) vs No. 16 Hobbs (0-1): Hobbs is currently in a rebuild mode but keep an eye out for Jarren Lewis who could win the Eagles some close ones. Artesia quarterback Clay Houghtaling tossed for 317 yards last week and likely to come close or throw for more this week. Prediction: Artesia 38, Hobbs 20. My Pick: Artesia.
No. 15 Manzano (0-1) vs Rio Grande (0-1): The Manzano Monarchs fell in their opener but showed signs that they will be a late bloomer type of team. Austin Erickson reached the end zone a couple type and between him and Jace Melfi (QB) they will see many fireworks tonight. Melfi led the Monarchs in rushing yards along with passing for over 200 yards. Prediction: Manzano 54, Rio Grande 0. My Pick: Manzano.
No. 17 Piedra Vista (0-1) at St. Pius X (0-1): (Saturday). The rebound game for both teams this week. Piedra Vista is the early favorite heading into the contest and it could look similar to last season as the defense overpowering Pius. Prediction: Piedra Vista 35, St. Pius 10. My Pick: Piedra Vista
No. 18 Deming (1-0) vs Capital (1-0): The quietly game to watch in 5A football this week. We are looking at seed position here and a win could be a difference maker for either program. Ceazer Chavez (2020) is a stud and one to watch. Prediction: Deming 24, Capital 14. My Pick: Deming
No. 19 Portales High School (1-0) at St. Michael's (0-1): The Portales Rams are on a quest for dominance and on track for a state championship in 2019. The St. Michael's horsemen may be a threat this season but looking to develop their young QB. Prediction: Portales 30, St. Michael's 14. My Pick: Portales.
No. 20 Cibola (1-0) at Onate (0-1): The Cibola Cougars freshman had an outing heard around the state last week, and I'm sure head coach Rod Williams will make sure he avoids any slump in his second outing. Prediction: Cibola 45, Onate 8. My Pick: Cibola
No. 21 West Las Vegas (1-0) at Santa Rosa (0-1): John Balizan (QB) and the Dons looking to move along smoothly with their visit to Santa Rosa on Friday night. Prediction: West Las Vegas 40, Santa Rosa 12. My Pick: West Las Vegas.
No. 24 Farmington (1-0) vs Belen (1-0): 5A football is giving us some playoff implication games this week. Farmington peaked the interest last week, Belen survived against Del Norte. Prediction: Farmington 38, Belen 27. My Pick: Farmington.
No. 25 Eunice (1-0) at Estancia (0-1): The 2A power makes the trip north to take on the Estancia Bears. The Eunice Cardinals have depth and plenty of talent to pass around. Prediction: Eunice 38, Estancia 14. My Pick: Eunice.
THURSDAY NIGHT RECAP
The night didn't bring any surprises and things went as expected. Mayfield's defense pulled out a nice performance in a win over Del Valle, TX (14-13). "MHS less than 100 yds on offense. 75 yds of offense, DV got 294 yds but MHS defense did what they had to do to pull out the game." -
@green thunder
Scores
Chaparral (0-1) at Irvin, Texas (0-0) - Cancelled
Jal (0-1) vs Hobbs-JV - Score Missing
La Cueva 43, Valley 0 - F
Mayfield 14, Del Valle, TX 13 - F
Sandia 41, Atrisco Heritage 9 - F
Tatum 44, Mountainair 12 - F
Volcano Vista 54, Del Norte 0 - F
MORE FROM THIS WEEK
Week Two: Most Likely to Upset this Week
Grine of NMPreps.com
No. 9 Eldorado over No. 4 Las Cruces (Line: Las Cruces -6.5). This could also be considered the most intriguing contest this week between 6A teams. The Eldorado Eagles had a dress rehersal last week, beating West Mesa easily (50-0). The Las Cruces Bulldawgs are coming off an impressive showing beat top-25 ranked Manzano, 55-27, and looking sharp. Before you grab the torches, we didn't have many to pick this week but this one could be a late OT type of game. Which defense makes the game winning stand? Outright win: 4/5 chances. Line: High (could be a 2-3 point game.
No. 22 St. Pius X over No. 17 Piedra Vista (Line: Piedra Vista -8). A tricky one and yes I know St. Pius was featured in the trouble section of questions facing ranked teams. However, this one is bit of a "who are you, really?". That means that we get a true picture or tell-some (not tell all) to both teams. Neither scored last week against higher ranked teams but this could be more of a measuring stick for both teams. Considering the line it wouldn't be a bad idea to take Pius but still Piedra Vista would likely be my pick 'em. Outright upset win: 3/5 chances. Line: Medium (Which offense shows up first this season?)
Capital over No. 18 Deming (Line: Deming -7). Could this be a first top-25 team losing to an unranked team of the season? Capital definitely has some key pieces returning after an injury prone 2018 season. Either way this one could be a treat for the folks in southwest New Mexico. It also features a pair of top ranked backs in Ceazer Chavez (DHS) and Luke Padilla (CHS). I'd still lean to Deming but I placed Capital in the conversation because it is a good chance this could happen. Outright upset win: 4.5/5. Line win: 5/5 (I think if Deming wins it'll favor Capital and expect a 23-20 type of result)
Belen over No. 24 Farmington (Line: Farmington -7.5). I'm conflicted on this one. I don't know how I feel about the line but if Farmington's offense looks anything like last week then I like taking the Scorpions. But...... if Farmington's defense allows Belen's offense to move, like Kirtland did, then this could be a 6-man score (60-56 type). Also, Belen's offense is better than KC's and could only get better under House.This one will be which offense has the ball last because defensively they both could improve. Might be a late alert one to watch. For me, I may lean towards Farmington still...maybe. Outright upset win: 4/5. Line win: 3.5/5 (Farmington lit up the scoreboard, can Belen?)
Grine-ding It Out On Picks: I do tend to mostly steer clear of teams within two slots of each other. This week I did. No. 8 Los Lunas at No. 8 Clovis (Clovis -1); No. 14 Goddard hosting No. 12 Carlsbad (Carlsbad -3.5) are those games. Those lines would be enticing though. Two game parlay taking Clovis and Goddard? If I had winnings from last week I would but if you seen my pick 'ems I could be in the hole early on. I'll post my weekly pick 'ems (record: 7-3) tomorrow along with added lines picks.
Week Two: Questions Facing Top-25 Teams This Week
J.Grine | NMPreps
Each week we will tackle some questions facing teams this coming week from our NMPreps Top-25 Rankings.
1) Rebound: Are the No. 22 St. Pius X Sartans in trouble?Last week quarterback Derek Rivera was taken out of the contest against Goddard with an injury. Remember he was injured in the playoffs last season as well. The Sartans have some talent but without him the offense could struggle, like it did last week being shutout. Maybe, it's too early to sell but maybe an investment in another 4A team to win it all could be the market today.
2) Votes: Top-25 worthy or short stay for No. 24 Farmington? The Scorpions had an impressive offensive outing last week against Kirtland Central, winning 55-33. Now, what many will say, is a true test against unranked Belen. Sort of strange putting unranked next to Belen after years of being a top-25 staple. Maybe this game puts them back in, unless Farmington defends their stance. Could also be the underrated match-up between the under-mentioned quarterback battle in Caleb Carrillo, Farmington HS (passed for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns last week). Luke Aragon also played well in a close win for Belen tossing a three touchdowns in the win, hitting three different receivers.
3) Contender/Pretender: Which top ten ranked team is also a contender for State? No. 4 Las Cruces looked impressive in their opening win over Manzano (No. 15), 55-27. The offense looked like it did during the state championship years with a QB that could sling it in Marcos Lopez and a back that can break things open in Johnny Terrazas. Eldorado appeared to have more weapons in the cabinet than we projected. Nick Petty looks comfortable taking the lead and had plenty of targets to hit. Xavier Gibson and Zack Hoffman had receiving TDs of 44 and 57 yards last week.
4) 0-2 Scare: Which possible 0-2 team has more to worry about? We've already mentioned St. Pius X above and we know their possible early season struggles. The other teams could be Artesia and Hobbs, the pair will battle in Artesia on Friday night. For, Artesia it should be much of a worry going 0-2 to start the season and they've been able to adjust/rebound from their tough non-district schedule. For Hobbs though it could be a struggle early that may lead to a total rebuild year. Dropping the contest 42-16 last week could be an early tell-all for the re-brand taking place here for coach Ken Stevens.
5) Units: How good is the No. 14 Goddard Rockets defense? Yes, they 'should' have won last week but could this defense become a serious unit this season? The Rockets are big and have some talent on the defensive side of the ball. Look for the names Marco Hernandez, Larry Luna, Ray Downs, and Hunter Beene to only grow. We knew Beene but now the support caste is hitting the scene. Sammy Zarragoza also did well on both sides. The test will come against a tougher competition this week against No.12 Carlsbad. If they can contain Nate Najar, who rushed for five touchdowns last week against Artesia, then we could have a true player here.
Extra Points: Small School Question. Texico (No. 4/2A) and Dexter (No. 4/3A) battle in a cross-classification contest this week. The defending champs have received some love early in the coaches poll but can they reload for another title? Texico, are they back? Back as a possible title contender (or participant) in the State Championship game.
NMPreps: Ranking the Must-See Games in Week 2
J. Grine | NMPreps
Each week on NMPreps.com we discuss which games you should watch and which could provide the best picture for the top teams in New Mexico. Week 2 provides us with many of the top teams leaving the state or hosting an out-of-state team.
1) No. 8 Los Lunas (1-0) at No. 10 Clovis (1-0): The game puts a two top-10 ranked teams against each other in eastern New Mexico. The Los Lunas Tigers (No. 8) and Clovis Wildcats (No. 10) also give us one of the most evenly match games of the night. Both feature a quarterback that can let it fly -
Kade Benavidez (LL) and
Chance Harris (CHS) and both have a defense that could rank among the best. The quarterback battle could be a later conversation as the debate for QB of the Year is discussed.
2) No. 1 Cleveland (1-0) at EP-Franklin, TX (0-0): The two meet in the later of a two-game series, last season Cleveland took the contest 35-21 in Rio Rancho. Now the top ranked Storm travel south to El Paso, Texas with hopes of maintaining the edge. Dorian Lewis, the top ranked running back in New Mexico also returns to El Paso where he played his sophomore and freshman years.
3) No. 4 Las Cruces (1-0) at No. 9 Eldorado (1-0): This could secretly be the best game this weekend and one that will light up the scoreboard. Personally, I like what both offenses bring to the table and it could make for a very high scoring contest - take the over in this one. Las Cruces brings the duo of quarterback
Marcos Lopez who accounted for three touchdowns along with running back
Johnny Terrazas who is the new guy on the block. Terrazas rushed for 180 yards and four touchdowns. The Eldorado Eagles had a warm-up against a young West Mesa team. This week will allow us a true picture but they had four or five different players reach the end zone last week. Quarterback
Nick Petty looked comfortable and could be an x-factor player this season.
4) No. 11 Mayfield (0-0) vs Del Valle, TX (0-0): Round four between the schools; the Del Valle High School Conquistadores lead the series 2-1, winning the last two. Del Valle (TX) is coming off an 8-3 season and will feature a new quarterback this season after do-everything Raymond Martinez graduated. For Mayfield it is the "opener" as they enjoyed the rain last week, cancelling their contest with Atrisco Heritage Academy.
5) No. 12 Carlsbad (1-0) at No. 14 Goddard (1-0): This one is an exciting one for the folks in southeastern New Mexico. The Cavemen are coming off a win in the Eddy County War and riding high hopes of finally reaching the playoffs. That journey will require a win in this one. Carlsbad received a big game from
Nate Najar last week as he crossed the goal line with five rushing touchdowns. The story for the Rockets is a high powered defense that shutout a St. Pius X team last week. We could list a handful of stars from the defense last week but keep an eye up front as Larry Luna, Ray Downs, and Hunter Beene look to shutdown the running game.
Best of the Rest
6) No. 7 Rio Rancho (0-1) at Pine Creek, CO (0-0)
7) Hatch Valley (1-0) at Ruidoso (0-1)
8) Belen (1-0) at No. 24 Farmington (1-0)
9) No. 6 Roswell (1-0) at Lovington (1-0)
10) No. 17 Piedra Vista (0-1) at No. 22 St. Pius X (0-1)
Other's To Keep an Eye On
No. 16 Hobbs (0-1) at No. 13 Artesia (0-1)
No. 19 Portales (1-0) at St. Michael's (0-1)
Aztec (1-0) at Newcomb (1-0)
Silver (0-0) vs Bowie, TX (0-0)
Bloomfield (1-0) at Escalante (1-0)
Cobre (0-0) at Robertson (1-0)
No. 25 Eunice (1-0) at Estancia (0-1)
Dexter (1-0) at Texico (1-0)
