2025 Class 5A Baseball Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions
Thursday, May 15 | Jennifer Riordan Spark Kindness Sports Complex – Albuquerque, NM
After a wild opening round that included a No. 14 seed upsetting a title favorite and dominant performances by several top seeds, the 2025 Class 5A state tournament now shifts to quarterfinals play on Thursday. Below is a full breakdown of all four matchups, including players to watch and score predictions.
No. 1 La Cueva Bears (25-3) vs No. 9 Los Lunas Tigers (18-10), 7:00 p.m.
La Cueva continues to roll with dominant back-to-back performances in the first round, defeating Las Cruces 10-0 and 7-3. The Bears have outscored opponents 297-78 this season and feature a loaded roster that includes Braiden Reynolds (2025, Grand Canyon commit), Jake Travis (2025), and Luke Feist (2026, UNM commit). They’ve already beaten Los Lunas twice this year, 8-4 and 9-4.
Talent runs deep for the Bears, with Brayden Likar (2025, Paradise Valley CC), Reid Jacobson (2025, UNM commit), Dylan Blomker (2026, LSU commit), and Everett Burdett (2025, Oregon State commit) rounding out an all-star-level lineup.
Los Lunas enters red-hot after dismantling Volcano Vista 15-1 and 14-0 in the opening round. The Tigers are powered by Jasiah Byers (2026), JJ Utash (2027), and Matthew Castillo (2025), with a lineup capable of surprising anyone when locked in.
NMPreps Prediction: La Cueva 9, Los Lunas 5. Los Lunas will put up a fight, but La Cueva’s depth and firepower should be too much late.
No. 2 Rio Rancho Rams (22-6) vs No. 7 Centennial Hawks (22-6), 10:00 a.m.
Rio Rancho showed off its championship potential in the first round, eliminating Farmington 9-2 and 13-5. The Rams are paced by top arms Adan Bustos (2025), Richard Reiffenberger (2028), and Brandon Segal (2025), with Wyatt Tinker (2026) anchoring the infield.
Centennial swept Rio Grande 16-6 and 8-5 and enters the quarterfinals with balanced production across the lineup. Key contributors include Israel Molina (2026), Cole Alons (2026), and Gabriel Torres (2026), who have helped lead the Hawks to over 210 runs this season.
NMPreps Prediction: Rio Rancho 6, Centennial 3. This one could stay tight through the middle innings, but Rio Rancho's arms and big-game experience give them the edge.
No. 4 Cleveland Storm (20-8) vs No. 5 Eldorado Eagles (21-7), 4:00 p.m.
A rematch of a 7-4 extra-inning thriller from March, this one has the makings of a classic. Cleveland bounced back from a Game 1 loss to Mayfield to win the series 2-1, showing resiliency and timely hitting. The Storm will lean on a deep roster including Treven Polanco (2026), Larry Garcia (2025), and catcher Owen Bishop (2025).
Eldorado, winners of eight straight, handled Organ Mountain 1-0 and 5-1 to advance. The Eagles are led by Timothy Kamphuis (2026), Kavan Salas (2025), and Ethan Marquez (2025), a trio that combines for power, speed, and mound presence.
NMPreps Prediction: Eldorado 5, Cleveland 4. Expect another close one, but Eldorado’s current momentum gives them the slight nod.
No. 6 Sandia Matadors (20-8) vs No. 14 Cibola Cougars (17-12), 1:00 p.m.
Cibola pulled off the biggest surprise of the first round, eliminating No. 3 Carlsbad in three games. The Cougars are dangerous offensively with Jacob Segotta (2025), Jacob Escobedo (2026), and Ryan Hutchinson (2026) providing pop at the plate.
Sandia advanced past Piedra Vista with a bounce-back series, winning Games 2 and 3 by a combined score of 20-7. The Matadors rely on pitchers Adriel Figueroa-Brito (2025), Levi Brooks (2025), and Charles Armijo (2025).
NMPreps Prediction: Sandia 7, Cibola 6. A potential slugfest between two powerful lineups. Sandia’s bats should be the difference in a high-scoring affair.
Grine’s Final Thoughts
The opening round was full of fireworks — and the quarterfinals could deliver even more.
La Cueva has looked unstoppable and holds two wins over Los Lunas, but the Tigers come in riding a wave of confidence. Rio Rancho vs. Centennial might be the most even matchup on paper, while Cleveland vs. Eldorado is a rematch worth watching after their earlier 9-inning battle.
Then there’s Sandia vs. Cibola — the ultimate contrast between a proven contender and a team that just shocked the bracket.
My most likely upset is No. 14 Cibola over Sandia, but Centennial over Rio Rancho is also a strong possibility.
Bottom line: the championship road still runs through La Cueva, but with strong challengers lined up in every direction, expect another memorable day at Jennifer Riordan Spark Kindness Sports Complex.
Grine's Picks: La Cueva, Centennial, Eldorado, Sandia
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