Summer Buzz: Which of Last Year's Cellar Teams Make the Playoffs in 2016?
Grine of NMPreps.com
Before we head into the summer session we get an early look at those teams that could be on the buy early into the preseason. Each year most teams that stumble in the previous fall hope it was a one-year slip as they have what it takes to return the following fall. Or maybe it was the cellar teams looking to make a leap into the next tier.
12 of 24 teams in the big school division reach the playoffs and we take a look at the 12 (or so depending on reclassification) that didn't make the cut a year back. Most of the time you will not find them in the rankings and for most you won't.
The Cellars (0-2 Win Teams)
Santa Fe (0-10): Sell
For now the ceiling appears to be low due to the football interest at Santa Fe High along with the strength of the District 1-6A teams. They played with the likes of the Cleveland Storm who are coming off a State Championship. Also, in that company is the 2014 state champions in the Rio Rancho Rams. Throw in the Cibola Cougars who are flourishing under Rod Williams along with the talent that seems to always be in the waiting room wearing black and silver of Volcano Vista. However, they have made the move into District 2-6A and that could be a good thing for anyone looking to escape 1-6A. Well, not so fast. Now they battle Eldorado, Clovis, Manzano and Sandia teams that were all playoff teams last season.
Only place to look is up after an 0-10 season, right? Well, on the hopeful side you say yes. You know that they have a head coach that works his tail off but where to look is the right question. Well, we will attempt to give direction. Ranked in the
Top 62 players returning in 6A next season is quarterback Adrian Blea who threw for over 500-yards as a junior last season.
Why the sell? Well, if we are looking at teams that missed the playoffs in 2015 in hopes of a playoff run in 2016 it's a no. However, I could buy on the fact that they won't be 0-10 and you can let me hear it if I am wrong. In a best case scenario I could see them getting a win on September 9th at home against Taos or on September 30th also at home against Los Alamos.
Rio Grande (0-10): Sell
Much like Santa Fe, likely more, at Rio Grande you have to battle with more than showing up to practice with football minded students. The list could go-on as you fight to keep players in pads the entire season, you fight to change the culture that hasn't been built with football in their blood. I should know, my family runs deep in the Valley and I love the Valley. However, football is far from the mindset of most.
Another cellar team that returns from an 0-10 season. So where do we look from here? Well, they made the best decision by bringing in Sam Mascarenas last summer. A+ grade right there. Now it comes to searching for the group of kids that take pride in changing the recent downfalls. The district is favorable, for the most part as they play in 5-6A with the likes of Albuquerque High, Atrisco Heritage Academy, Valley and West Mesa and I mean no disrespect but not the most difficult of districts.
Why the Sell? This is just the start of a long foundation building process that is going to happen in the Valley. What is the old saying, "Rome wasn't built in a day?". Well, this will take longer. No player returns in the Top 62 returning players in 6A. The schedule does have a date with Bernalillo to open the season on September 17th that could get the season off on the right foot.
Gadsden (1-10): Sell
Will I buy any of the four teams in the cellar? More bad news here as the Panthers play in arguably the best District in 6A football in terms of championship history longevity. Las Cruces and Mayfield are two powers that loom over the district and state of New Mexico.
Gadsden did sneak a win last season and we haven't see a schedule (or I haven't yet) of the 2016 slate outside of EP Cathedral (TX), Onate, Mayfield and Carlsbad. Add new district members Centennial and Hobbs to create a bigger gap for them to make any jump past one win.
Why the sell? Well with Santa Fe they have two scheduled high possibility win games that we talked about along with a Top-62 returning quarterback prospect. Rio Grande has positives in district and head coach but still a big project. Gadsden doesn't have a friendly schedule and I didn't see any players ranked in the Top 100. Maybe, I'll see that prospect at the Elite Combine this summer down in Las Cruces and could change my hard sell.
Highland (2-8): Sell
Yes, I am selling right now but 2-wins is a huge accomplishment for the Hornets football program. That alone is a buy in terms of other things outside of this feature.
The Hornets play in a district that could provide some help, getting out of the district with Eldorado, Sandia and Manzano helps. Now they go back to face Rio Grande, West Mesa, Atrisco and Albuquerque High. For the most part that is a positive.
Why the hard sell? Well, they don't appear to have any Ranked Prospects (hopefully some venture down to the NMPrpes.com Elite Combine) and they play in a District that I see it hard for them to get a W. Their schedule is not completed online but have games with West Mesa and Rio Grande that could provide "winnable" next them.
Carlsbad (2-9): Buy
Yes, we know that football runs deep in the southeast corner of New Mexico. They do it the right way when it comes to school pride and town pride. However, Carlsbad has been the program that maybe sits on the sidelines as others carry blue trophies. Well, much like Rio Grande, they made a A+ with extra credit hire in hiring Gary Bradley away from Farmington High School. Bradley won a state title in a basketball rich corner of the state.
This cellar team will only be a cellar team for one season as they look to be much improved in year two of the Bradley era. Does this sell mean an over .500 season and playoff birth? Maybe, maybe not and that answer is terrible but look at this schedule with the likes of Artesia, Clovis, Goddard, Cibola, Mayfield, Centennial, Onate, Las Cruces, Gadsden and Hobbs. In a best case scenario I could see a 4-6 win range but if this era really kicks into high gear I could lean to the 6-win side of things with a playoff birth.
So what am I banking on? Does the basketball guy have a true reason why? Well, maybe (yes, I love that word today). They have Bradley and that alone should give them a notch on the positive. Next, they return Jaykan Willis (2018) on the defensive end, a 6A 3rd Team All Defense along with Nate Arrington (2018) a strong safety also making the 3rd Team All Defense. For now, still too long away, I say buy.
Next Tier (3-6 Win Teams; No Playoffs)
La Cueva (3-7): Buy or Sell making the playoffs in 2016?
Valley (3-7): Buy or Sell making the playoffs in 2016?
Albuquerque (4-6): Buy or Sell making the playoffs in 2016?
Onate (4-6): Buy or Sell making the playoffs in 2016?
West Mesa (4-6): Buy or Sell making the playoffs in 2016?
Related Summer Features
Position Rankings: Top 10 Returning Linebacker Cores
6A: Make The Cut. Playoff Teams in 2016
6A: Which Cellar Team to Buy On To Make The Playoffs in 2016
6A: Which Playoffs Teams in 2015 Return In 2016
