How does the playoff picture look after 5-weeks of baseball? We try our first attempt at a blank canvas. District play starts today and the order will become a week closer after Saturday and the weeks that follow. However, we take a look at the order today; it'll likely change a lot before the final game.
District Placement
1-6A
Rio Rancho (13-5)
Cleveland (8-5)
Piedra Vista (11-7)
Volcano Vista (7-6)
Cibola (4-9)
We We Know: Rio Rancho has the case to be the top team from the district. They have solid wins over Eldorado, Las Cruces and Volcano Vista. Volcano Vista will float around the 3-4 spot but not a bad team for the playoffs. Cleveland start slow but played in the Sal Puentes Championship last week. Piedra Vista is the sleeper/wildcard/could eventually win it all team. Cibola will be a cellar team as the top four are too good for them to make any room but will likely steal at least one win.
What Could Happen: I could see a Piedra Vista-Cleveland, Piedra Vista-Rio Rancho or Rio Rancho-Cleveland championship outcome. Volcano Vista will try to play into that conversation, you shouldn't be shocked if it does happen.
2-6A
La Cueva (11-2)
Clovis (12-3)
Sandia (9-4)
Manzano (8-4)
Eldorado (8-4)
Santa Fe (7-4)
What we know: La Cueva started the season as our preseason No. 1 team. They started the season 0-2 and it was 'good' for them to lose and end that streak because now they have their own win streak at 11. Clovis is coming off a good week that helped their resume with wins over Rio Rancho and Cleveland that could help their seed later down the line and overall helps the district. Eldorado is the best of the middle teams and we had them as high as 3rd in the state last week. Manzano and Sandia are bubble teams with Santa Fe trying to play spoiler.
What could happen: I think it'll end La Cueva, Clovis and Eldorado with Sandia-Manzano following behind. Should be a 4/5 bid league. Don't finish last and don't drop a game to the last place team.
3-6A
Carlsbad (10-4, 3-1)
Centennial (13-3, 3-1)
Mayfield (9-7, 2-2)
Onate (10-6, 2-2)
Gadsden (10-5, 2-2)
Las Cruces (7-7, 0-2)
Hobbs (4-9, 0-2)
What we know: Carlsbad beating Centennial last week puts the two at the top and now we wait for the first to fall to another from the district. This is the only district that started play and the interesting point is Mayfield making the climb in the rankings and standings. They earned two wins over Onate and dropped two to Carlsbad. If they can stay above Las Cruces and Gadsden they could be in a good position for the playoffs. Las Cruces losing both games to Gadsden hurt but good news is they still have plenty of room to make up for the slow start.
What could happen: Carlsbad and Centennial are still tied on the final week of April. Las Cruces will either win a doubleheader over Mayfield-Onate or split. The chase for third is hard to predict. If I had to pick I would go with either Gadsden or Mayfield at this point. Hobbs could be the team on the outside looking in but remember this team has a win over Cleveland and a win over Piedra Vista. They are not completely settled into the last place spot. This district is very much uncertain at this point.
4-6A
Valley (8-4)
Atrisco Heritage (7-5)
Rio Grande (7-5)
Albuquerque (4-7)
West Mesa (3-10)
Highland (2-10)
What we know: Valley and Atrisco are at the top and Rio Grande has been a sneaky squad looking to earn the third bid. Yes, this district is a 2 or 3 bid league. They earned 3 last season and with Rio Grande holding wins over Valley, Los Lunas and Academy could help them be a third bid league again. Valley is winners of 5 of their last 6 and hold a win over top ranked La Cueva. Atrisco is inconsistent right now after a 5-1 start they dropped four start before rebounding last week with wins over Hope Christian and Sandia.
What could happen: Rio Grande could win this district. Atrisco could win the district. Valley could win this district. Thursday, Valley and Atrisco square off and we can learn more then.
Playoffs
In-Play for the Top 4 Seeds: La Cueva, Centennial, Carlsbad and Clovis. La Cueva appears to be the favorite to be in the spot. Centennial and Carlsbad could fall in line but it is likely we won't see both. Clovis played into the top-4 talk after wins over District 1-6A members.
Who we could add to the top-4: Piedra Vista, Rio Rancho or Cleveland. Piedra Vista could run the table and replace Centennial or Carlsbad, whichever falls into second just as long as they don't end tied.
The 5-8 Home Games: Well, we have Piedra Vista, Carlsbad/Centennial and Rio Rancho or Cleveland in the conversation. That's 7 teams right now. Eldorado, Volcano Vista or maybe District 4-6A champ? For now let's say Eldorado.
9-12 Teams: 4-6A Champ (right now let's say Valley), Volcano Vista and Mayfield along with Onate?
13-16 Bubble Teams: Gadsden, Rio Grande, Las Cruces, Atrisco Heritage Academy?
Who Did We Forget (17-19): Manzano, Hobbs, Santa Fe,
