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State Tournament Criteria

Here we go. I would like to make a few statements prior to putting my thoughts here.

1. I do not believe I have the answers to everyone's individual situations 1-5A and Girls/Boys. Border School/Metro School. This is a discussion for me to get feedback so I can learn more about our state. Constructive criticism is welcome.
2. If you are someone who "doesn't care" what the criteria is.. Meaning, You don't care if we go back to District Winner and District Runner up representing state or you are a "lets just see who wins in March guy" "the best teams always rise up" than this thread isn't for you. I am trying to look forward at making our amazing state tournament, even more amazing. You can keep your feelings from 30 years ago, to yourself.

I will be posting a simplified version of the criteria that I have sent around to several head coaches around the state at different levels and girls/boys and received a mostly positive response. I will also be doing my own bracketology based on my criteria. If it all seems to make sense I will petition the NMAA at a few board meetings so I can to force them to at least look at making a change. I will address the concerns several coaches have and then my solutions.

Concerns

1. District competition in the state of New Mexico has not been balanced the last few years. Now, understandably, there is nothing that can be done about talent BUT overemphasis on district play and wins vs small school District champs creates an unfair advantage for those districts that haven’t truly earned a spot in the state tournament.

2. Comparing districts with 4 teams and 6 teams isn’t applicable because a 4th place team from a 4-team district can have 0 wins but a 4th place team from a 6-team district could have four or five wins. That isn’t a fair comparison. It doesn’t prove that those teams should be “equal” within the data. Therefore, the data collected is a statistical fallacy. If you need proof take a look at the the current 3rd place in District 6-4A vs the 3rd place in District 3-4A and tell me those teams are a wash.

3. Wins vs Any District Champion allows for soft scheduling for those coaches that have input in their schedule. A win for Lovington vs. a 5A champion (i.e. Hobbs) is accounted for the same amount of criteria points as a win vs 1A champion (i.e. Dora). With no disrespect to 1A or any small school basketball (Like PECOS!) it is largely inequitable data when comparing teams.

4. Coaches poll doesn’t receive full participation from Head Coaches therefore not all districts are represented equally. No equality equals bad data. Think about coaches that are already out of the tournament not voting for their district champ to get a high seed- that is wrong. Also, coaches input is purely based on opinion and many coaches aren’t following any data (just who their friends are or reputation)- so opinion makes the data irrelevant. If those polls are being tossed out because the opinion of that coach lacks evidence, then, yet another reason the data is irrelevant.

If the data we collect is relevant and simple then coaches shouldn’t need input because the “data” will have the best teams playing in the top-16.

5. You cannot be seeded higher than someone you finished lower than in district play. Why not? A wild card process allows for looking at the body of work of an entire season. You could go undefeated pre-district and lose one district game and that team has to be seeded higher than you? That is not common sense. It overemphasizes district play, which means there would need to be balanced districts for that criteria to be equitable. Look at St. Pius boys last year. Three wins vs District Champs, #13 Max preps, 15 overall wins but couldn't be seeded higher than Belen who was the #15 seed. Then, Miyamura wins the District tournament so Pius was eliminated from the tournament. Also this rule creates problems in the district tournament. Where beating the #1 team in the district tournament could drop their overall seed (max preps rating/win %) which would then drop your seed because you have to be seeded behind them. That is non sensical. A win shouldn't hurt you.

My solutions:

1. Max Preps rating- stays the same (Second Tie Break)

2. H2H- Stays the same (First Tie Break)

3. Win %- Stays the same

4. Wins vs District Champ- Out of state teams still count

a. 5A win=5 points, 4A win= 4 points 3A win= 3 points, 2A win= 2points, 1A win= 1 point

5. District Finish- Only matters when comparing teams in the SAME district- no cross- district comparison. You can be seeded higher than someone you finish behind in district. You can earn a criteria point for finishing higher than someone in your district but it doesn’t mean you get a higher seed in state.

a. Example 1:
i. Goddard finishes 1st place in district and Lovington finishes 2nd place. You compare those teams the following way

1. Goddard owns the H2H and Dist. Finish

2. Lovington owns the Win%, Max Preps, Wins vs DC

ii. Given this scenario- the body of work for Lovington is better- they could be seeded higher in State even though they finished behind Goddard. Goddard still gets credit for District finish.

b. Example 2:

i. Goddard finishes 1st and Lovington finishes 2nd

1. Goddard owns District Finish, Max Preps

2. Lovington owns Win %, H2H.

3. Wins vs. DC is a wash
ii. In this scenario, those schools tied on criteria, H2H is for Lovington in the tiebreak. But district finish did come in to play because Goddard finished higher so they were granted the point.

c. Example 3:

i. Goddard finishes 3rd in district (1-5) Overall (13-10) 56%

ii. Del Norte finishes 5th in district (2-8) (10-13) 43%

1. Goddard owns win %, wins vs DC

2. DN owns Max Preps, H2H

iii. The current criteria has Goddard in over DN because of district finish but Goddard won less games in district (so when we overemphasize district play in cross district criteria it doesn’t make sense)

iv. With this simplified criteria- Del Norte would own the spot over Goddard because of a H2H win and an overall higher rating (possibly tougher schedule) than Goddard.

6. District tournament would still be relevant because of Win %, H2H, and auto bid for winning the tournament. But no one would be hurt by the best team losing in the tournament.

I will be updating this thread with my 3A, 4A and 5A brackets. I will try and get to 1A and 2A if I can. I want to see how different (if at all) the seeding is.

I love talking hoops. I love that you guys keep this site alive by talking about great efforts by teams and individual player performances- it really makes the season fun.

New pitch count rules

The NMAA is in the process of adopting a revised pitch count rule. Under the new rule, at the varsity level, a pitcher may throw no more than 120 pitches in any three-day period. At the sub-varsity level, a pitcher may throw 105 pitches in any three-day period. The pitcher will be allowed to finish a batter if they hit the maximum limit (120 in varsity, 105 in sub-varsity) during an at-bat, but must exit the game after the batter.

This change appears to be directed at use of pitchers during tournaments, specifically the state tournament. Under the old rule, which had a 120-pitch limit per game plus some built-in rest requirements, a pitcher could throw 60 pitches on Thursday and then come back and throw 120 pitches on Saturday (180 total) or 40 pitches on Friday and 120 pitches on Saturday (160 total).

The rest requirements, it appears, will remain in place -- that is, a pitcher who throws 41-60 pitches one day still has to sit out a day before pitching again. In other words, a guy can't go 45-45-30 or something like that over a three-day tourney.

This isn't quite official -- the member schools still have to approve it. But the NMAA board is implementing the new rule immediately while the vote is pending.
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Bracket Watch: Road to the PIT - 5A Boys

5A BASKETBALL

CRITERIA

1. District Placement Form (When going against other teams, your district placement form takes the lead, even if tied. However, if tied with a district team they could take either team)
2. Head to Head
3. Wins against district champs (Even if you beat your own DC)
4. Overall Record (Percentage wise)
5. Freeman Rankings
6. School Input Form (Usually thrown out but kept secret) - Will use coach poll

FINAL ROAD TO THE PIT - 5A BASKETBALL (3/1/2020)


No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16

DISTRICT CHAMPS - STANDINGS (3/1/2020)
District 1 - Atrisco Heritage (6-2), Cleveland (5-3), Rio Rancho (4-4), Volcano Vista (3-5), Cibola (2-6)

District 2 - La Cueva (7-1), Eldorado (6-2), West Mesa (5-3), Farmington (2-6), Piedra Vista (0-8)

District 3 - Las Cruces (11-1), Onate (9-3), Centennial (8-4), Gadsden (5-7), Mayfield (4-8), Alamogordo (4-8), Deming (1-11)

District 4 - Hobbs (5-1), Clovis (4-2), Roswell (3-3), Carlsbad (0-6)

District 4 - Santa Fe (9-1), Capital (9-1), Albuquerque (5-5), Sandia (4-6), Manzano (3-7), Rio Grande (0-10)

==

NMPreps.com's Road to the PIT

DISTRICT I
Volcano Vista 16-2, 2-0
Cibola 12-5, 1-1
Atrisco Heritage 6-11, 1-1
Cleveland 12-7, 0-1
Rio Rancho 5-12, 0-1

What We Know: Volcano Vista is the favorite and will win out. Head coach Lisa Villlarael continues to be one of the top three head coaches in New Mexico basketball. Cibola's Lori Mabrey could be on the very short list of coach of the year nominees with the rebound year for Cibola.

District Happenings: Atrisco Heritage with a big program win over Rio Rancho, is Rio Rancho is rebuilding but still quality win for Atrisco Heritage.

How we predict the finish: Volcano Vista, Cibola, Cleveland, Atrisco Heritage, Rio Rancho

Locks: Volcano Vista, Cibola
Bubbles: Cleveland

DISTRICT II
Piedra Vista 19-1, 2-0
La Cueva 15-1, 1-0
Farmington 14-5, 0-1
West Mesa 9-6, 0-1
Eldorado 6-9, 0-1

What We Know: Piedra Vista was moving along to a 17-0 start before dropping their first contest. La Cueva is one of the best of the dark horse type teams in the second tier. West Mesa and Farmington are solid squads and elite eight quality.

District Happenings: The start looks about the direction this district will go. Piedra Vista and West Mesa proves how close 1-4 will be this season moving forward. La Cueva and Farmington also a two point difference.

How we predict the finish: Piedra Vista, La Cueva, West Mesa, Farmington, Eldorado

Locks: Piedra Vista, La Cueva, West Mesa, Farmington

DISTRICT III
Mayfield 13-4, 4-0
Centennial 17-2, 4-1
Onate 9-10, 3-2
Deming 14-4, 2-2
Alamogordo 10-8, 1-3
Las Cruces 6-12, 1-3
Gadsden 4-12, 0-4

What we Know: Mayfield and Centennial are VERY good. We all know that part but they could be the best teams that most are not picking to win it all. The rest of the district will battle for the third spot.

District Happenings: How many teams does this district get in this season? Right now looking at 3 but likely 4.

Locks: Mayfield, Centennial
Bubbles: Deming, Onate, Alamogordo
Work to Do: Las Cruces

Predicted Finish: Mayfield, Centennial, Onate, Deming, Alamogordo, Las Cruces, Gadsden

DISTRICT IV
Hobbs 18-0, 0-0
Carlsbad 15-3, 0-0
Clovis 8-11, 0-0
Roswell 7-13, 0-0

What we Know: Hobbs is Hobbs. Head coach Joey Carpenter is sitting at the top of the top coach in New Mexico. Carlsbad has some talent. Clovis and then Roswell are deep in the cellar.

District Happenings. Another week until it kicks off but not much will change what we already know here.

Locks: Hobbs, Carlsbad
Bubble: Clovis

Predicted Finish: Hobbs, Carlsbad, Clovis, Roswell.

DISTRICT V
Sandia 12-4, 2-0
Albuquerque 6-9, 2-0
Capital 6-12, 1-1
Manzano 3-11, 0-1
Rio Grande 1-14, 0-1
Santa Fe 8-9, 0-2

What we Know: Sandia the biggest sleeper out there. Them beating Piedra Vista to end their 17-0 start was impressive and head coach Lee Ketting is another on that this off Coach of the Year candidates. The rest of the district will fight for possibly the only other bid in the district.

District Happenings: Nothing surprising at this point. The third slot should be a battle. Santa Fe and Manzano could be in play there.

Locks: Sandia
Bubbles: Albuquerque, Santa Fe
Predicted Finish: Sandia, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Manzano, Capital, Rio Grande

STATE TOURNAMENT PAIRINGS
#1 Hobbs (Auto: DC) vs #16 Santa Fe (At-Large: D3P)
#2 Piedra Vista (Auto: DC) vs #15 Albuquerque (At-Large: DRUP)
#3 Mayfield (Auto: DC) vs #14 Deming (At-Large: D4P)
#4 La Cueva (At-Large: DRUP) vs #13 Cleveland (At-Large: D3P)
#5 Volcano Vista (Auto: DC) vs #12 Onate (At-Large: D3P)
#6 Sandia (Auto: DC) vs #11 Farmington (At-Large: D4P)
#7 Centennial (At-Large: DRUP) vs #10 West Mesa (At-Large: D3P)
#8 Carlsbad (At-Large: DRUP) vs #9 Cibola (At-Large: DRUP)
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Daily Dimes - February 26th

BIG THREE FOR WEDNESDAY

Highland (15-10) vs Del Norte (14-11) - Highland and Del Norte are still looking for their seat at the top-8 table. The game features a few players that are likely to find themselves on a post season award. Del Norte and head coach Jeron McIntosh thrive at this time of the season. Highland looking to break out and back as a deep playoff squad

Gadsden (15-12) at Las Cruces (24-2) - Gadsden has been a bubble team, likely in at the end of the list but an upset win here could do wonders for their post season run.

Volcano Vista (18-7) at Rio Rancho (14-12) - District 1-5A is fun. Tonight, like every night in this district, should live up to New Mexico basketball in late February, early March. Nice crowds, higher tempo, and energy through the roof.

Daily Dimes - February 25th

Cibola (9-15) at Volcano Vista (17-7): Cibola is on the bubble and could be OUT without a nice run this week. Volcano Vista, once a favorite to win it all is looking at a high (12-15 seed) and also needing a nice week.

Lovington (13-12) at Portales (10-16): Lovington could help improve their playoff bid and another win against the Rams will improve their resume. The winner moves on to play Goddard.

Grants vs St. Pius: Grants joins a group of other bubble teams looking to make the 2020 state tournament. Pius looking to play spoiler in this one.

Add more games

Player Rankings NMPreps Top 50 for 2019/2020

NMPreps Top 50

Top 50 players in New Mexico High School Basketball for the 2019/2020 season.

Aidan Moreno
School: Cleveland High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Averaging 10 points and 5 rebounds per game for the well-rounded Cleveland Storm.

Brandon Montanez
School: Goddard High School (4A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Coming off a 38-point performance, Montanez is averaging 20 points per game this season.

Brandon Sanchez
School: Chaparral High School (4A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Sanchez helped guide the Lobos to a district title. He is averaging 12 points and 8 rebounds per game.

Bryce Santana
School: Los Lunas High School (4A)
Class: 2020
Notes: The football star is a beast in the paint for the Tigers. Putting in 14 points per game for the Tigers.

Deraje Agbaosi
School: Eldorado High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2020
Notes: The 6-6 forward entered the season with plenty of hype and has backed it up to this point. The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 entering the 2020 portion.
1/4/2019

Derek Aeilts
School: La Cueva High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Aeilts has committed at playing hoops in college and through 11-games this season he is averaging 14 points per game.

Diego Hernandez
School: Gadsden High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: The Gadsden Panthers are ranked and looking to make the playoffs this season. Hernandez is putting in 28 points per game this season.
1/10/2020

Dion Battle
School: Volcano Vista High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2020
Notes: Battle can shoot and he started the season with a huge 30-point game early, he has the Hawks at 9-0 on the season.
1/4/2019.

Dominic Nava
School: Roswell High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2020
Notes: Nava is off to a sound start, through eight games he is averaging 22 points per game for the Coyotes.
12/31/2019

Elijah Davidson
School: Bosque Prep
Classification: 3A
Class: 2020
Notes: Davidson is a high flying player that has committed to the next level. He has the Bobcats at 6-1 this season behind 21 points per game.
12/30/19

Eloy Medina
School: West Mesa (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Has good size and a smooth shooter. Currently putting up 19 points per game for the West Mesa Mustangs.

Erasmo Carreon
School: Highland High School (4A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Averaging 14 points per game this season for the Hornets.

Ismael Villegas
School: Pecos High School (2A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Putting in 16 points per game, the Panthers are the talk of the state and heavy favorite to win another state championship.

Jake Mattox
School: Valencia High School
Classification: 4A
Class: 2020
Notes: Mattox is a game changer for the Jaguars and his 14 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game has been felt. He has only played in 9 of their 14 games but should be good to go the rest of the way.
12/31/2019

Jalen Goar
School: Hobbs High School
Class: 2022
Notes: Already setting records at one of New Mexico's top basketball schools, Goar is averaging 14 points per game for the Eagles.
2/7/2020

Jaxson Mirabal
School: Magdalena High School
Class: 2020
Notes: 4.8 steals per game as a defensive enforcer. Also, averaging 17 ppg, 4.1 aspg, and 6.6 rebounds for the Steers.

JB White
School: Santa Fe High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2021
Notes: The University of New Mexico commit has ushered in a strong start to the 2019/2020 basketball season. The Demons reached the state title game without him the Demons hope to make it back now with their go-to.
12/31/2019

Jose Murrillo
School: Highland High School
Classification: 4A
Class: 2022
Notes: The post player is one of the newcomers of the year and is a spark to the top ranked team in 4A basketball. He is currently averaging 16 points and 16 rebounds per game.
12/30/2019

Joziah Ramos
School: Atrisco Heritage Academy (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Ramos has been on the list for three years now and the top ranked point guard continues to be one of the best. Through 8-games he is averaging 21.4 points per game.
1/10/2020

Jude Tapia
School: Albuquerque High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Tapia has been on the radar but this season he is really coming to form averaging over 20 points per game (25 per at the APS Metro). Bulldogs could be a late player.
1/10/2020

Nathan Hasberry
School: Cleveland High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2021
Notes: A big time player for the 11-0 Storm (currently ranked No. 1 NMPreps). Hasberry is putting in 13 points and 4 rebounds per game.
1/4/2019

Owen Olney
School: Magdalena High School
Classification: 2A
Class: 2020
Notes: The former Rio Rancho Ram features some of the top dunks and quietly going to make an argument for player of the year in 2A. Currently averaging 16.7 points per game.
12/30/2019

Ray Brown
School: Las Cruces High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Brown, a 6-3 wing for the Las Cruces Bulldawgs is part of a really sound group. The Dawgs are 16-1.
1/15/2020

Ricky Lujan
School: Onate High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Top name known across the state has helped guide the Knights to an 18-4 (5-3 district) season. Lujan is regarded as one of the top guards in the state and has already committed to play college basketball.

Shamar Smith
School: Carlsbad High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Smith has been a player we've been waiting for a breakout year. He is a big time talent and has recently put up 19 points. Smith and the Cavemen are 14-7 and floating around the middle of the pack.

Shane Douma-Sanchez
School: Del Norte High School (4A)
Class: 2023
Notes: The freshman is hitting the scene running, currently averaging 16.8 points per game and providing the Knights another scorer on a team that reached the Final Four last season.
1/24/2020

Teren Smith
School: Hobbs High School (5A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Smith is putting in 17 points per game for the top-ten ranked Hobbs Eagles this season.
1/15/2020

TJ Sanchez
School: Capital High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2020
Notes: Sanchez and the Capital Jaguars are a threat this season. Sanchez is putting up impressive numbers so far with 20 points per game through 10 games.
12/31/2019

Tre Watson III
School: Cleveland High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2021
Notes: The 6-foot-5, above the rim, wing-forward will be a next level prospect in either football or basketball. Watson is athletic and makes the Storm (currently ranked 1) the favorite. He is currently 15 points and 6 rebounds per contest.
12/30/2019

Tristan Moore
School: La Cueva High School
Classification: 5A
Class: 2020
Notes: Without their go-to player Tristan Moore has stepped into big shoes and is averaging 12 points per game along with 5 rebounds and a pair of assists per contest.
12/31/2019

Tucker Smothermon
School: Artesia High School
Classification: 4A
Class: 2021
Notes: The 6-4 wing is a newcomer on our list this season. Smothermon can do a little of everything and his shooting range is a spark for a big and talent Bulldogs team. His name will only improve come January through March.
12/30/2019

William 'Duece' Benjamin
School: Las Cruces High School (5A)
Class: 2022
Notes: A smooth guard that runs the system for his father at Las Cruces. The Bulldawgs are 16-1 on the season and ranked high in every poll.
1/15/2020

Xavier Padilla
School: Pecos High School (2A)
Class: 2020
Notes: Padilla plays for the 2A back-to-back champs and putting up 18 points per game this season.
1/23/2020

Note: NMPreps.com's will continue to add names throughout the season. Email us at grinejosh@yahoo.com will prospects.
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Grine: Our 12 State Champion Favorites & Contenders

5A BASKETBALL

We are two weeks away from the announcement of the 2020 New Mexico high school state basketball brackets. Today, we put teams into tiers, which reflect their possible ceiling. Keep in mind we can only have two teams per group.

Group I: State Champion Favorites

1. Cleveland Storm (20-3 overall, 2-3 district)

Why: I could hear the doubters on this one, that is okay. I think the Storm took their losses at the start of district play but their current 3-game win streak should tell why we have the Storm as a state championship game favorite. They have plenty of talent to get there, a great coaching staff, and after years of knocking on the door - eventually it will open.

2. Volcano Vista Hawks (17-5 overall, 3-3 district)

Why: Again, we hear it all. Again, I will say that this match-up is our most likely championship game to happen. If the recent results in this growing rivalry shows anything it would be a classic. Team note, like Cleveland, Volcano Vista has a solid coaching staff, talented pieces and at moments look unbeatable.

Group II: Final Four Contenders

3. Capital Jaguars (20-3 overall, 6-1 district)

Why: Capital could be in the long shot for many but I like head coach Gomez and this could be the story-like season with a Final Four or even state championship. The odds against the Jaguars is great so, it would be worth taking the bet. TJ Sanchez has the opportunity to have an early-2000's Jaguar player recognition type post season.

4. Las Cruces Bulldawgs (22-1 overall, 9-0 district)

Why: The Bulldawgs experienced the upset that will be remembered for many years - the first 2-seed to lose to a 15-seed in the State tournament (13-year history of the bracket format; went to 16-teams in 2006). Well, the number one ranked Bulldawgs (NMPreps.com's Week 12 Power-16 Rankings) have everything you'd like in a championship type team. Gives the Virginia type feel.

Group III: Elite Eight Eyes

5. Atrisco Heritage Jaguars (15-7 overall, 5-1 district)

Why: The leader from district one, over the likes of VVHS and Cleveland, is our fifth most likely to win the state championship? The two-time defending championship is in group three of most likely to win the state championship? Is the magic out or will head coach Adrian Ortega and guard Joziah Ramos prove us wrong again?

6. Santa Fe Demons (19-3 overall, 7-0 district)

Why: The two teams that represented the 2019 state championship game lead group III. I feel Santa Fe would have many takers with odds this high. Yes, they have the top ranked prospect in the state. Yes, they are 19-3 on the season and made that magical/Cinderella run last season.

7. Clovis Wildcats (16-7 overall, 2-1 district)

Why: Maybe, the dark horse on our list of teams to make it to the PIT for the 2020 Elite Eight. Yes, the Wildcats have been all over the board from a possible threat to maybe a high seed without Something about the Wildcats has us taking them into the Elite Eight after being 'upset' in 2019 as an 8-seed. The big guy in the middle has left the stress of picking a college home and now can focus on making some history on the hardwood.

8. Eldorado Eagles (18-3 overall, 4-1 district)

Why: The Eagles might have the least believers of the top-ranked teams. They have become the forgotten 18-win team (likely 20-win team) when the brackets are released. The Eagles have one of the best big men in the state in Deraje Agbaosi who could have them as the sleeper in the state.

Group IV: First Round Squads

9. Onate Knights (20-4 overall, 7-3 district)
10. Hobbs Eagles (16-7 overall, 3-0 district)
11. La Cueva Bears (13-8 overall, 4-1 district)
12. Rio Rancho Rams (12-11 overall, 2-3 district)
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