All districts are starting soon (with the exception of 3-6A, which has already been at it for two weekends). Here are predictions for district finish – please add your own (including 4A and below).
1-6A
1. Rio Rancho
2. Piedra Vista
3. Cleveland
4. Volcano Vista
5. Cibola
Honestly, this district is so loaded and so even that any order is possible. Even Cibola has enough starting pitching to cause real trouble. This district plays a pure eight-game home and away schedule, with no double-headers, meaning that pitching depth is maybe a little less important. At least four and maybe all five of these teams are going to the state tournament. Piedra Vista is really good, but they haven’t yet put a ton of runs on the board (although they have faced great pitching), and they have a built-in disadvantage with the travel.
2-6A
1. La Cueva
2. Sandia
3. Clovis
4. Eldorado
5. Manzano
6. Santa Fe
This is traditionally a very competitive district, but this year La Cueva is going to cruise. Clovis might be good enough to finish second – they had a good weekend at the Rio Rancho tournament, and they have a huge double-header right off the bat this Saturday at home against Eldorado. Eldorado's problem is that it doesn't seem like they have an ace pitcher they can rely on to win big games. Sandia has the edge over Clovis because their doubleheader is in Albuquerque. Manzano is a wild-card, because Mitchell Parker may be the best pitcher in the district (I hope he and Stroman match up in their doubleheader this Saturday), so whenever he pitches Manzano has a great shot to win (remember that he no-hit La Cueva last year). Santa Fe is 8-3 but with no real quality wins.
3-6A
1. Carlsbad (2-2)
2. Hobbs (2-0)
3. Las Cruces (2-0)
4. Centennial (1-3)
5. Mayfield (2-2)
6. Onate (3-1)
7. Gadsden (0-4)
(Current records shown). I thought Carlsbad was the easy favorite to win this district, because the once-a-week doubleheader schedule meant they can start Trevor Rogers in half their district games. But they have only managed two splits so far, one against a mediocre Mayfield team. This district has already been very hard to predict just two games in and will be very competitive every Friday. The Carlsbad @ Las Cruces doubleheader on April 7 is huge. Hobbs had a very nice start with a road sweep of Centennial – now the schedule favors them because they get Las Cruces and Carlsbad at home. Gadsden had a really nice pre-conference season, but shot themselves in the foot the first weekend with a sweep by Onate, and they really needed to win at least one from Las Cruces this weekend.
4-6A
1. Atrisco Heritage
2. Valley
3. Rio Grande
4. Albuquerque
5. West Mesa
6. Highland
Atrisco Heritage beat Rio Grande and Valley in the Metro tournament, plus they have nice wins over Volcano Vista, Eldorado and Cibola, so they are the favorite. Valley and Rio Grande are decent, well-coached teams – Valley has a little more talent. Albuquerque High has enough talent to steal some wins and get in the conversation for second or third place.
1-5A
1. Aztec
2. Farmington
3. Miyamura
4. Kirtland Central
5. Bloomfield
6. Gallup
Aztec and Farmington are a toss-up. Aztec had a nice double-header sweep at Roswell this weekend. Miyamura pitches well and could steal wins from Aztec and Farmington. This district isn’t strong but still might get four teams in the state tournament.
2-5A
1. Academy
2. Los Alamos
3. Del Norte
4. Espanola Valley
5. Capital
We will know by this Saturday, when Los Alamos hosts Academy in a doubleheader, if there will be any intrigue in this district at all. If Academy sweeps, this district will basically be over the first weekend. Academy has been a little up and down (in part due to injuries), but beat Goddard this weekend with a freshman pitcher. Los Alamos is competitive but doesn’t have the team they have had in the past. Del Norte has a chance to sneak into the state tournament.
3-5A
1. Alamogordo
2. Deming
3. Santa Teresa
4. Chaparral
This district (like 4-5A) has a grueling schedule with two doubleheaders a week. Alamogordo has looked good, with wins over Goddard and Clovis, but they struggled at home against Lovington this weekend. Deming and Santa Teresa are both tough to beat when they have the right guy on the mound. Any of those three could win the district. Santa Teresa needs to take care of business early -- they start district with home doubleheaders against Deming and Alamo.
4-5A
1. Goddard
2. Artesia
3. Roswell
4. Lovington
Goddard may have the best 5A team, but their losses to Alamogordo and Academy show they aren’t invincible. The Rockets beat Artesia in a tournament game yesterday. Artesia is the best 4-8 team you ever heard of – they started the season losing to Clovis, Carlsbad, Hobbs and Cleveland by a total of eight runs. But they need to figure out how to score more. Roswell is improved but probably a notch below those other two teams.
5-5A
1. St. Pius
2. Belen
3. Valencia
4. Los Lunas
5. Grants
St. Pius is the class of this district. Their record is only 8-8 but they have played the toughest schedule in 5A, according to MaxPreps, and they have a lot more pitching than anyone else in the district. The three Valencia County teams are all very close in talent. Grants is improving but very young.
