District 3-6A Predictions for 2016
Joshua J Grine of NMPreps.com
Today, we take a look at District 3-6A and give our predictions for what the 2016 season could bring us. We tackle some questions, ask some at the same time and decide how the district will shape up.
More: District 1-5A | District 2-5A |
District 3-5A |
District 4-5A |
District 5-5A |
District 4-6A Predictions
Three Questions That Will Shape The District
1. Three Team Battle for First? Right now the consensus at the top is between the 6A powers Las Cruces High and Mayfield but that never changes but the addition of Centennial from 5A could create a battle of three now. The transition to 6A football will be difficult but unlike other teams that have to move UP in classification would seem daunting however the Hawks are different having one of the best head coaches in New Mexico, one of the best quarterbacks and a program returning after playing for the 5A state championship in 2015. I'm not discarding the other programs but these three are the best in the District and state. Onate, Carlsbad and Hobbs right now have some question marks to be in the conversation this preseason. Gadsden will play David this season as this district overall is a Goliath.
2. 4/5 Bid League? Going to 4-Districts with the realignment could either cause a headache for the state tournament selection or answer the questions to who is worthy of the state tournament. Headache because this district has 5 to 6 teams that could be a playoff team, shoot if Onate was in D4 they would be a favorite to win the district. However, in D3 right now they could miss the state tournament as the 6th best team. The locks are Las Cruces, Mayfield and Centennial as favorites. The group that could be fighting for the last slot is Hobbs, Carlsbad and Onate in our predictions.
3. Who handles the transition the best? We talked about Centennial above and we know of their move up in classification. Next, is the change of head coach at the power in Las Cruces. Legendary head coach Jim Miller resigned after the 2015 season and enter in his longtime assistant Mark Lopez. Most would think the Bulldawgs will be fine but running the show is a lot different in any case and their will be a learning curve. I could see (and you will see my prediction below) that the Dawgs might be the odd man out in the 3-team battle for first.
Grine Prediction Finish
1. #4 Mayfield
2. #8 Centennial
3. #5 Las Cruces
4. #9 Onate
5. #10 Hobbs
6. #16 Carlsbad
7. Gadsden
Explain?: Mayfield.... it's Mayfield. Centennial mentioned above has some depth and key prospects returning and I think with the change of guard at Las Cruces makes them a better pick today. Onate, initially when I sat down to write this feature was going to be my 6th ranked team, I might of mentioned that above. I liked Hobbs as my fourth because Onate has the offense that was on the wrong end of the titter-totter to stacked defense. That is still the same but they do have a 1,100-yard passing QB returning. Maybe the Knights are the dark horse that I should like. Carlsbad should be the most improved team in the state. Hobbs has to replace one of the best QBS in the state last season, could have some growing pains but they have two of the best WR's returning. Gadsden mentioned above has a mountain to climb.
23 Studs to Watch
Isaac Vance, RB, Mayfield
Forest Mckee, LB, Onate
Dante Lopez, QB, Centennial
Torri Locklin, QB, Mayfield (2018)
Jr. Pena, WR, Centennial
Tristan Olson, OL, Las Cruces
Gavin Swinson, WR, Mayfield
Matt Young, LB, Onate
Brandon Baeza, WR, Las Cruces (2018)
Payton Ball, RB, Las Cruces (2018)
Jalen Guerrero, OL/TE, Mayfield
James Martin, DL, Onate
Cason Clay, WR, Hobbs
Chipper Childers, DB, Hobbs
Aaron Compton, WR, Hobbs
Caleb Beaird, LB, Hobbs
Nate Arrington, SS, Carlsbad
Jaykan Willis, LB, Carlsbad
Josiah Fielder, RB, Onate
Joaquin Gutierrez, RB, Centennial
Ryan Beltran, RB, Las Cruces
Jason Stamper, OL, Las Cruces
Monroe Young, DB, Onate (2018)