Best and Worst Case Scenarios for 2016
J Grine of NMPreps.com
Today, we take a quick look at the schedule for teams heading into the 2016 season. The feature is part of our predictions as we look at the 2016 football season.
Albuquerque High Bulldogs
Preseason Rank: No. 19
Schedule
8/26 - Centennial
9/3 - Valencia
9/16 - Eldorado
9/22 - at Del Norte
9/29 - at Cibola
10/7 - Rio Grande
10/13 - at Valley
10/21 - West Mesa
10/28 - at Highland
11/4 - Atrisco Heritage Academy
Schedule Strength: C
Best Case: 4-6 Record; It's not that I am being hard on the Bulldogs. Their head coach is doing a terrific job and I hope they lock him down for many years. However, they graduated plenty of players that meant a lot to their team. They play five Preseason Top-25 teams along with a date with two of the top programs in New Mexico - Eldorado and Centennial. The four wins in a best case scenario is Rio Grande, Valencia, Del Norte and Atrisco Heritage. We could look at Highland maybe with a 5th but went Atrisco as they could be in a transition season much like the Bulldogs.
Worst Case: 1-9 Record: Last season they got wins over Valencia and Valley and overall the strength was weaker. Those three teams will be improved and could get revenge this season with the Bulldogs in a transition season. The one win could still be over Rio Grande in a worst case scenario.
Reality: NMPreps Nation voice your opinion. Post your record for reality record.
Atrisco Heritage Academy Jaguars
Preseason Rank: 20
Schedule
8/25 - Manzano
9/3 - Onate
9/15 - Del Norte
9/23 - Volcano Vista
10/7 - Valley
10/14 - West Mesa
10/20 - Highland
10/28 - Rio Grande
11/4 - Albuquerque
Schedule Strength: C -
Best Case: 5-5 Record. Much like it's district foe Albuquerque High the Jaguars could have been a generous preseason rank by us. Maybe, they have something along the lines of solid coaching that will get them those coin flip wins. Right now, on the best case side of things we say .500 season with a chance to make the post season. So here it goes on a best case; Del Norte, Valley, Highland, Rio Grande and Albuquerque.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. The coin flip games that I gave back right now is Highland and Valley. Del Norte could be on that radar but Atrisco has a defense to match up against a new QB for the Knights and they will have to contain the running back. Of the two I think they could flip rankings in Albuquerque and Atrisco, Atrisco seems the better of the two.
Reality: NMPreps Nation voice your opinion. Post your record for reality record.
Carlsbad Cavemen
Preseason Rank: #16
Schedule
8/26 - Artesia
9/2 - Clovis
9/9 - Goddard
9/17 - Cibola
9/23 -Mayfield
9/30 - Centennial
10/7 - Onate
10/15 - Las Cruces
10/28 - Gadsden
11/4 - Hobbs
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 6-4 Record. That would be a four game swing from the previous season. However, this schedule just looks brutal for any football team. Looking just at their non-district schedule they play for playoff teams from 2015. The 4-they don't get this season, Mayfield, Centennial, Las Cruces and Clovis. Still at 6-4 it could be 8-2 or 7-3 but tried to play closer to a program only in year two under their HC.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. No doubt they will be improved this season after being a turnover prone squad last season. They have some key returning prospects, enough to get three wins out of yet. Gadsden, Onate and Goddard maybe the most likely wins on the schedule and Hobbs is not far off as they move in the season with a new QB question mark.
Reality: NMPreps Nation voice your opinion. Post your record for reality record.
Centennial Hawks
Preseason Rank: #8
2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Albuquerque
9/3 - Manzano
9/9 - at La Cueva
9/16 - Cleveland
9/23 - Hobbs
9/30 - at Carlsbad
10/7 - Gadsden
10/14 - at Mayfield
10/22 - at Las Cruces
11/5 - Onate
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 7-3 Record. This would be an impressive introductory to 6A football finishing 7-3 but the 2015 5A State Runner Up is regarded as one of the best teams in the state. Before a date with Cleveland on 9/16 they could start 3-0 in a best case. They should be there in all games but no easy games as projected wins of La Cueva, Manzano and Carlsbad could also be down to the wire games.
Worst Case: 5-5 Record. The Hawks will not be below .500, for worst case scenario sake, .500 is where we place them. They have plenty of returning players, one of the top head coaches in the state of New Mexico and a chance to make a splash this season. Games I like for them is a good mixture facing mostly Top-25 teams but sprinkle in some teams that are question marks.
Cibola Cougars
Preseason Ranking: #17
2016 Schedule
8/24 - La Cueva
9/2 - at Las Cruces
9/9 - at Manzano
9/17 - Carlsbad
9/23 - at Sandia
9/29 - Albuquerque
10/7 - at Piedra Vista
10/13 - Cleveland
10/21 - at Volcano Vista
10/29 - Rio Rancho
Schedule Strength: B+
Best Case: 6-4 Record. This team is hard to predict as they are a middle tier team with plenty of coin flip games. For the sake of best case we give them the coin flip on La Cueva, Sandia, Manzano, and Carlsbad. Wins as favorites over Albuquerque and Piedra Vista.
Worst Case: 4-6 Record. The thing with the Cougars is they haven't finished under .500 during the Williams tenure. If it was to happen in a worst case scenario this could be the season with a tougher schedule. Sandia and La Cueva are given back but could still win over Manzano and Carlsbad in the coin flip. They'll still given the 2 as favorites over
Cleveland Storm
Preseason Ranking: Coming Soon
2016 Schedule
8/27 @ Onate
9/2 LaCueva
9/9 Las Cruces
9/16 @ Centennial
9/23 @ Artesia
9/30 Atrisco Heritage
10/7 Rio Rancho
10/13 @ Cibola (Community)
10/21 Piedra Vista
10/28 Bye
11/4 @ Volcano Vista (Community)
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 9-1 Record. In the best case possible and winning all the games that they are a favorite in. Could be swayed to 8-2 with back to back weeks at Centennial and Artesia. However, Cleveland though they graduated a lot are just as talented again in 2016.
Worst Case: 7-3 Record. They have an A schedule and it will be difficult but this team is good and will boast one impressive line up. The games that "could" be losses - Rio Rancho, Centennial/Artesia or Volcano Vista/Las Cruces. Pick your poison.
Clovis Wildcats
Preseason Rank: Coming Soon
2016 Schedule
8/30 - at Hobbs
9/2 - at Carlsbad
9/9 - Rio Rancho
9/16 - at Goddard
9/23 - Cooper (TX)
10/7 - Eldorado
10/15 - at Manzano (Wilson Stadium)
10/21 - Santa Fe
10/29 - at Sandia (Wilson Stadium)
11/4 - at La Cueva
Schedule Strength: B+
Best Case: 7-3 Record. The Wildcats return one of the best running back duos and will be favored in a majority of the games to open the season. Three games they are not is Rio Rancho, Cooper (TX) and Eldorado. However, we give them the coin flip games over Hobbs, Sandia and La Cueva. Scary game is Carlsbad that will be an underrated yet intriguing game.
Worst Case: 5-5 Record. With the roster returning you can't see them below .500 even though they have to replace a next level QB. However, you know they love to had the ball off and why not with studs Micah Gray and Seth Lopez. The only games that I give away is Sandia and rival game Hobbs.
Eldorado Eagles
Preseason Ranking: Coming Soon
2016 Schedule
8/26 - Las Cruces (Wilson)
9/2 - Volcano Vista (Wilson)
9/9 - Mayfield
9/16 - at Albuquerque
9/23 - at Valley (Milne)
10/7 - at Clovis
10/14 - Sandia (Wilson)
10/21 - at Manzano (Wilson)
10/28 - at La Cueva (Wilson)
11/5 - Santa Fe (Wilson)
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case Scenario: 9-1 Record. Might come as a shocker but the Eagles will be ranked very high this preseason and a favorite in a handful of their games. If you are a favorite we normally give you the win in the best case scenario. We had an exception here and gave a loss to either Las Cruces or Mayfield who are very close in preseason ranking as coin flip games at this point how close they are in ranking.
Worst Case Scenario: 7-3 Record. The Eagles will be solid this season. That is without question and they will be over .500. However, they do have an interesting few games that include a district with Clovis, Sandia and La Cueva who could all be in play for a playoff spot. Adding Las Cruces and Mayfield only improve your schedule as Top-5 teams.
Gadsden Panthers
Preseason Ranking: NR
2016 Schedule
8/26 - Deming
9/2 - Roswell
9/9 - Cathedral (TX)
9/16 - at Chaparral
9/23 - Onate
9/29 - at Las Cruces
10/7 -at Centennial
10/14 - Hobbs
10/21 - Mayfield
10/28 - at Carlsbad
Schedule Strength: B
Best Case Scenario: 3-7 Record. Gadsden right now is not ranked in the Top-50 and play a schedule with 8-teams ranked in the Top-50. So the wins we give today is Cathedral (TX), Chaparral along with an upset win in terms of a non-favorite win over Deming at home. 3-wins might not seem like a lot but consider they only won one game last season.
Worst Case Scenario: 1-9 Record. The only game that they might truly be a favorite is against 5A Chaparral. District play will be daunting for the Panthers with a difficult slate of teams that could be potential playoff teams.
Highland Hornets
Preseason Ranking: NR
2016 Schedule
8/27 - St. Pius X (Community)
9/3 - Belen (Wilson)
9/15 - Valencia (Wilson)
9/22 - at La Cueva (Wilson)
9/30 - at Volcano Vista (Community)
10/6 - West Mesa (Milne)
10/14 - at Rio Grande (Milne)
10/20 - Atrisco Heritage Academy (Milne)
10/28 - Albuquerque (Milne)
11/3 - at Valley (Milne)
Schedule Strength: C
Best Case: 4-6 Record. Right now as it stands the Hornets could be a favorite in 1 game as 9 of 10 teams are ranked in the Top 50. We give the benefit of the doubt against wild cards teams Belen, Valencia and Albuquerque. The other win against Rio Grande. Expectations are a bit higher and the Hornets will be good, just how good?
Worst Case: 2-8 Record. We split last season on best/worst case as we went 4-6/1-9 and they finished 2-8. So, we gave the two wins against Rio Grande and Albuquerque back in a worst case. They could sneak another against Atrisco Heritage Academy who could be down.
Hobbs Eagles
Preseason Ranking: #10
2016 Schedule
8/30 - Clovis
9/16 - at Lovington
9/23 - at Centennial
10/14 - at Gadsden
10/21 - at Onate
10/28 - Mayfield
11/4 - Carlsbad
TBA - Roswell
TBA - Las Cruces
TBA - Artesia
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 7-3 Record. This could be a stretch as the Eagles do have some questions that need to be addressed. However, this we know is that head coach Gleghorn is one of the best around. They have four games that they are favored in this preseason rankings in Lovington, Carlsbad, Gadsden, and Roswell. Three coin flip games (close in ranking +3/-3) in Onate, Centennial and Artesia to round out 7-wins in a best case scenario.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. In the worst case we gave back the coin flip games along with a team that we could call the dark horse factor in Carlsbad. This season could be a roller coaster type of year for the Eagles but like many others the answers will reveal themselves as the season progresses.
La Cueva Bears
Preseason Ranking: #13
2016 Schedule
8/24 - at Cibola (Community)
9/2 - Cleveland
9/9 - Centennial
9/16 - West Mesa (Wilson)
9/22 - Highland (Wilson)
10/7 - Manzano (Wilson)
10/14 - at Santa Fe
10/20 - Sandia (Wilson)
10/28 - Eldorado (Wilson)
11/4 - Clovis
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 6-4 Record. The 6-wins given are either to teams they are ranked above this preseason or close that we gave the coin flip. 6-wins may seem like a lot but it doubles the win total from a season ago. This team however 'could' make noise under the radar as things seem to be moving well.
Worst Case: 4-6 Record. Looking at the 6-wins that were either favorite or coin flip, three coin flip games were against Sandia, Manzano and Cibola. The two that they lose the coin flip to are Sandia and Cibola in my predict outcome. Sandia will be solid and have a defense and Manzano is ranked above La Cueva at this moment and could be this sneaky good team with a few prospects that will play at the next level.
Las Cruces Bulldawgs
2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Eldorado (Wilson)
9/2 - Cibola
9/9 - at Cleveland
9/17 - at Valley (Milne)
9/29 - Gadsden
10/15 - Carlsbad
10/22 - Centennial
10/28 - at Onate
11/4 - Mayfield
TBA - Hobbs
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 8-2 Record. The Bulldawgs are a tough team to judge right now. They have a new head coach making the calls this season for the first time in 18 years. The Bulldawgs come into the season ranked 5th in the state but the talent is there with an explosive 2018 class. In a best case world we could have gone 10-0 but a trip to Cleveland (No.2) will be a tall task. We also have a loss to Mayfield the big time rival, who they have lost to the last three games.
Worst Case: 6-4 Record. Opening game against Eldorado will play as a standard stick to what team could be good in 2016. Only one game but it can start to answer questions to who the real contenders is. In a worst case we go Eldo, Cleveland, Mayfield and Centennial.
Manzano Monarchs
Preseason Ranking: #11
2016 Schedule
8/25 - Atrisco Heritage Academy (Community)
9/3 - at Centennial
9/9 - Cibola (Wilson)
9/23 - at Rio Rancho
10/1 - Piedra Vista (Wilson)
10/7 - at La Cueva (Wilson)
10/15 - Clovis
10/21 - Eldorado (Wilson)
10/28 - Santa Fe
11/4 - Sandia (Wilson)
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 6-4 Record. The Monarchs are a make or break type of team right now. This could swing either way for the Monrachs as they have some athletes on the squad but searching for a QB. Games favored in right now - AHA, Cibola, Piedra Vista, La Cueva, Santa Fe and Sandia. Though they are favored they could be picked against a few of those.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. The Monarchs are a scary team because of those athletes but like mentioned it could swing either way. This district is filled with could be teams. The only team I think is better than it's ranking is the Sandia Matadors, them along with Cibola and La Cueva in the worst case goes against them.
Mayfield Trojans
Preseason Ranking: #4
2016 Schedule
8/26 - Rio Rancho
9/2 - at Del Valle (El Paso)
9/9 - Eldorado
9/16 - Volcano Vista (Community)
9/23 - Carlsbad
9/30 - at Onate
10/7 - Centennial
10/21 - at Gadsden
10/28 - Hobbs
11/4 - Las Cruces
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 9-1 Record. This is reach with a challenging schedule with an (A) grade. Right now the only loss could come with one of the three - vs No. 1 Rio Rancho, No. 3 Eldorado or rival (that has it's own challenges) No. 5 Las Cruces. The thing on their side against Rio and Eldo are they play them at home and I was on the verge of saying 10-0 - maybe I should have? (I'll save that for the southern pride posters... ready, set, post).
Worst Case: 7-3 Record. In the worst case scenario, I don't see a team with this much talent losing more than 3-games and 3 seems high of a number. Mayfield with the NMSU commits sort of reminds you of Cleveland who had the UNM recruits and I think a worst case scenario has them losing in the the semi-finals, the best case has them winning the state title and maybe perfect.
Onate Knights
Preseason Rankings: #9
2016 Schedule
8/27 - Cleveland
9/3 - at Atrisco Heritage Academy (Community)
9/9 - Sandia
9/16 - at Rio Rancho
9/23 - at Gadsden
9/30 - Mayfield
10/7 - at Carlsbad
10/21 - Hobbs
10/28 - Las Cruces
11/5 - at Centennial
Schedule Strength: A+
Best Case: 6-4 Record. Okay, I know plenty of you are going to disagree (or not). However, this is by far the most difficult schedule that I've come across. They face off with #1 Rio Rancho, #2 Cleveland, #4 Mayfield, #5 Las Cruces and #8 Centennial not counting teams that could be improved greatly in Carlsbad, Sandia and Hobbs is no pushover.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. This schedule is scary, right now the toughest. The Knights have a solid defense, we know that however they have to go up against some serious offensive teams as Cleveland, Sandia, Rio Rancho and Mayfield have some of the best quarterbacks.
Piedra Vista Panthers
Preseason Ranking: #18
2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Farmington
9/2 - at Goddard
9/9 - Durango, Colo.
9/16 - Aztec
9/23 - West Mesa
10/1 - at Manzano
10/7 - Cibola
10/21 - at Cleveland
10/28 - Volcano Vista
11/4 - at Rio Rancho
Schedule Strength: B
Best Case: 6-4 Record. They will be favored early in 4-games. Gave a win over Durango, Colorado avenging a loss from last season. We took a win over Cibola in the coin flip game (+3/-3 ranking). Piedra Vista has a sneaky team that might be the biggest surprise team of 2016.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. Like with most teams that could be good, if things don't go their way might suffer some close losses. Farmington is a rival game and might go either way on opening night. Aztec, Goddard, West Mesa look to be some games they are favored in but all could create issues.
Rio Grande Ravens
2016 Schedule
8/26 - Sandia (Community)
9/2 - at Miyamura
9/16 - at Belen
9/24 - Los Lunas (Milne)
10/1 - Del Norte (Milne)
10/7 - Albuquerque (Milne)
10/14 - Highland (Milne)
10/20 - Valley (Community)
10/28 - Atrisco Heritage Academy (Community)
11/3 - West Mesa (Community)
Schedule Strength: C
Best Case: 2-8 Record. Plenty of you could be saying what two games? Or maybe you are on the other side of the fence saying only 2? This program will get better and they will continue to grow but numbers just are not there right now.
Worst Case: 0-10 Record. As mentioned they are only in the foundational aspects of the program. Many things are against them right now but I am sure they will get things rolling in a few years.
Rio Rancho Rams
Preseason Rank: #1
2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Mayfield
9/2 - EP Americas, Texas
9/9 - at Clovis
9/16 - Onate
9/23 - Manzano
9/30 - at Sandia (Wilson)
10/7 - at Cleveland
10/14 - Volcano Vista
10/29 - at Cibola (Community)
11/4 - Piedra Vista
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 10-0 Record. Okay, some folks might not agree with this pick. However, they are ranked number one in the state, have a deep returning squad and could duplicate 2014. They have a great mixture to their schedule as they start with a southern slate in three of their first four, well put together. Mayfield (No. 4), Cleveland (No. 2) and Clovis (No. 7) will pose huge threats (NM teams) but in the best case scenario they run the table.
Worst Case: 7-3 Record. 3 to me sounds to high of a number. However, stay true to the feature we had to give some losses. Playing at Clovis and at Mayfield is a difficult task along with hosting EP Americas who they lost to last season could provide the three losses. However, in what twilight word would they start 0-3? So maybe 2 of those 3, along with rival Cleveland.
Sandia Matadors
Preseason Rank: #15
2016 Schedule
8/26 - Rio Grande (Community)
9/2 - at Valley (Milne)
9/9 -at Onate
9/23 - Cibola (Wilson)
9/30 - Rio Rancho (Wilson)
10/8 - Santa Fe (Wilson)
10/14 - at Eldorado (Wilson)
10/20 - at La Cueva (Wilson)
10/29 - Clovis (Wilson)
11/4 - Manzano (Wilson)
Schedule Strength: A-
Best Case: 7-3 Record. The Sandia Matadors are either well underrated as the preseason No. 15 team in the state or a middle of the pack team holding the red muleta on any team ranked above them on their schedule. My realistic expecation is they are both underrated but maybe in the right position to pull the upset, if I was a team ranked above I wouldn't want to face them. I could see them or in this case predict a 4-0 start heading into the Rio Rancho showdown.
Worst Case: 5-5 Record. The Matadors are 15th. However, this is no team that will go under .500 in my prediction. They have 4-5 guys, possibly more, that will play college football. They are well coached, have big weapons, a QB under the radar. Maybe a slip up or there but no slide. For the sake of the feature a .500 season is the worst case scenario.
Santa Fe Demons
Preseason Rank: NR
2016 Schedule
8/26 - at St. Michael's
9/9 - Capital
9/16 - Taos
9/23 - Goddard
9/30 - Los Alamos
10/8 - at Sandia
10/14 - La Cueva
10/21 - at Clovis
10/28 - Manzano
11/5 - at Eldorado
Schedule Strength: B
Best Case: 3-7 Record. The Santa Fe Demons will like leaving District 1-6A but the task doesn't get any better as they enter a District 2-6A with teams that could be on the rise, the district might be at full strength top to bottom this season. If they want to get some wins they will have to win the local race against either St. Mikes/Capital, Taos and maybe Los Alamos. However, all teams with maybe the expect of Taos are due for big years considering their history. The Demons will bring more of a punch this season and return some prospects that will have them look for 3 plus more this season.
Worst Case: 1-9 Record. The Demons will have some weapons, as mentioned above, they had some prospects attend the NMPrpes.com combine and showed well. However, this program could struggle with the difficulty of their district along with the region playing better football. In the worst case I think a 1-win season could be in the future.
Valley Vikings
2016 Schedule
8/27 - Volcano Vista (Community)
9/2 - Sandia (Milne)
9/9 - at Alamogordo
9/17 - Las Cruces (Milne)
9/23 - Eldorado (Milne)
10/7 - Atrisco Heritage Academy (Community)
10/13 - Albuquerque (Milne)
10/20 - at Rio Grande (Community)
10/27 - at West Mesa (Community)
11/3 - Highland (Milne)
Schedule Strength: B
Best Case: 5-5 Record. The Vikings are under new leadership with the highly energetic veteran HC Judge Chavez. The Vikings do have some talent return to make a run at the DC in 4-6A. However, the opening 5-games to the season will be against some of the top tier teams in the state of New Mexico. They have back-to-back weekends against Top-5 teams this preseason in Las Cruces (No. 5) and Eldorado (No. 3).
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. The Vikings have a daunting 5-game stretch to open the season and that could either prepare them for 4-6A or hinder their season altogether. Yes, we all want to play the best but the confidence level could take a toll on you when you play top team after top team. The task is hard, very hard, but if they stay strong they can recover. They will be one of the more talented teams in 4-6A and could change for the title either way.
Volcano Vista Hawks
2016 Schedule
8/27 - Valley
9/2 - at Eldorado
9/9 - at West Mesa
9/16 - Mayfield
9/23 - at Atrisco Heritage Academy
9/30 - Highland
10/14 - at Rio Rancho
10/21 - Cibola
10/28 - at Piedra Vista
11/4 - Cleveland
Schedule Strength: A
Best Case: 7-3 Record. Nearly went with 6-4 but I have a feeling this could be a breakout season for the Hawks. They have talent at each position on offense with a Division-1 WR in David Cormier. Offense will be their strength but if looking at a weakness their defense lost several key players last season. In a best case scenario we see 6-wins plus an upset win over 1 of the four teams ranked in the top-4 (Mayfield, Rio Rancho, Cleveland or Eldorado).
Worst Case: 5-5 Record. The Hawks have talent (did I mention their O?). I can't see the team going under .500 with 6 highly winnable games that they will be a favorite in. They will have to avoid some teams that could be better than projected in West Mesa, Piedra Vista or Valley.
West Mesa Mustangs
2016 Schedule
8/26 - at Del Norte (Community)
9/2 - St. Pius X (Community)
9/9 - Volcano Vista (Community)
9/16 - La Cueva (Wilson)
9/23 - at Piedra Vista
10/6 - at Highland (Milne)
10/14 - Atrisco Heritage Academy (Community)
10/21 - at Albuquerque (Milne)
10/27 - Valley (Community)
11/3 - Rio Grande (Community)
Schedule Strength: C
Best Case: 6-4 Record. The Mustangs are excelling well under head coach Ron McMath. If we are looking at the best case scenario the Mustangs have the opportunity to go over .500 for the first time since 2010 when they reached the state tournament. The schedule is in their favor with no games against Top-10 preseason ranked teams but have some quality teams in SPX, Volcano Vista, La Cueva and Piedra Vista that will give them a tough stretch but one that can get them ready for District play.
Worst Case: 3-7 Record. Reminder that I am trying to stay as true as possible to the worst case scenario. However, I am not sold on them being a 3-win team as this will be the most talented team under McMath who has had to spend time building the program up. The only thing that scares me is a possible 0-5 start if they slip up in week one to a dark horse Del Norte team. The Mustangs are definitely the make-or-break team of 2016.
